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A BILLION BUSHELS OF. WHEAT.
THE CEOP OF TIIE UNITED
STATES..,
In “Munsey's llagazino" for 8ep
tuinbor Judsou C. Weliiver contributes
a very striking article on A Billion
tiusheis of Wheat." - Wo oxtract tho
following:— : : •
. When men get’ into conflict 'ahxong
themselves, and go to war to'kill one
another, their instant concern is for •’the
•vhcat by which they may live, in-order
• uore efficiently to carry on' their kill
ing. 'fltis is why the business of rais
ing and selling wheat is always affect-'
cd deeply when war starts. .There is
anxiety for the stores of’food, flrBt of
all. Some nations produce more wheat
than they can use, and sell 'their surplus
to others that produce less. The coun
tries which grow less than they should
bo cut off from their sources of addi
tional supplies. Moreover, tho risks of:
transportation are increased; .insurance!
fates go Up; costs of freightage aro in-,
creased entirely nside from tho clement
of risk; values of money-are. rendered
iuseenro; exchange rises; and, Anally,
there is tho inevitable tendency , to,
speculate, to take advantage of the
fears of folks; and nil.these work to
gether to force prices higher. That was i
just what happened when the war open
ed iutho summer of lflli. All the world
bad a short crop, save, tho United
elates, and every country bethought
itself at once to. commandeer all .'the
n-heat it could lind.-. The United
States-Was tho ono great accessible
warehouse. As truly' as tho stored-up
supplies of Josoph saved: Egypt from
famine, so did the billion-bushel prop
of the United' Stnteg'Bavo half tho world*
if ram Haugen' •. -V *' ■ ; t »* **'•'; • - -'* .*
!< ■ WHEAT ENOUGH* TO PAY ‘ 7
CURRENT DEBTS. .v‘k;
But for (he war, which*.ri'otVpnly. tde*;
sconded' on Europe in a year ‘of sliott;
yields, but” alisd cut’off access' to -RusVI
bin's .surplus by closing her southern
ports, the American wheat crop.of 1U14
would probably have sold for an .aver—
nge'p’Hce very little imore than-one-half’
that- which was actually obtained, in .
11 iiuonths the. United' Btatos ‘sold
abroad iu .wheat and. its Hour product,
three hundred jautl seventeen million
btWheis for more tlmn four hundred,
and;seven million dollars.’. Though _w.o
sold < vastly of other grnius, of “meats,
d£ all manner of foodstuffs, .yet wheat.
eonstjtuted very much more . than'half
of all* the food necessaries sent-away;
from ohr ports. The wheat alone was
enough to pay tlio nution's currbnt
debts abroad, and savorour-gold from
being draiued away to Europe.. To
have a billion bushels of w;heat; nearjy
Half of which can bo spared, at a
time when all the world desperately
needs it,'is* to’be independent. * That
was just what it meant to Uncle Sain?,
nel. To lie’exact, this country didn’t
have quite a billion bushels last year.
it3 crop measured out a littlo ■ under:
nine |iundrcd tmiUionsj-but.it was-far.
away the greatest tho nation had ever
This year, by the best information to’
Unt'e; the crop will quito or very nearly
touch tho million mark'; but tho nded
for it will bo less dosparate, for all,
tho world has increased its Rowings, 1
anti'the crop in nearly all countries, has
prospered, Despite tho war/ it is quite ■
possible that tho. world will this year,.}
£rew its. .grpafpst recorded..-.wheat/
yfcHT. / Last autumn; when' war was'
{driving prices higher., every-;day,? the
wiept-growors/^lled with' megalpmaniu,
aolv.ed every avaihiblo acre: Many of
Jlioni wero1 confident that tho;crop of ,
w til'd 'bringyet ',bett’of prices ;than''!
liibso jbf'39l4j‘ but"they-'were .‘invoking !
|^o| inexorable laSk pf ‘supply arid/de*
ju juhdtto5 defeat'their exppetation3/r v /
I’d jl SvAit AND.wheat'PBicES.' . ’;'.
^ t?Ilhe. effects, uf iyaia 'ojV,wheat JpVlcqs'
.Itivi* bbeii' niinlyseil. wBh/dXtrbme care
4>y: ]thoexport* U'uth Critics, as '■ ind’ood, 1
•JjfS; almost'pyeryihuig else that hiis.tO
$1,6, ,:with wheat- in long periods' of
‘*j»ehee' prices fluctuate' very little and,
as' a rule,/arc comparatively Jow. In.
unit* of war lluetuations are violent and
extreme; very-high levels are usually
/uuuhud ami the . uannul is never re*.
stured till a long tipne after the return
uf peace. This is one of tho curipus
truths uof always borne in mind even
»>y .those who regardUbemseives as ox-..
{ierts. In England which may be taken
u. the centre. of. the world’s market
Trucat got .to 3.80 dollars.in 1812, after
,‘^.vo. decades of practically ooutiurous
.y^iiuie, Theu Napi>ieou. marched • 4**
/iosepw and ruim—and wEcat- foil ol*..
jiiyistj ouu-balL .lie. went to-cnim/ aub;
;.vEeat settled. siovViy^to.ward a normal
Jpripe; ho .pamp^buck, and; the. Hundred
’.Jays which ended-:at Waterloo .proved,
•too short a period.to produce fi}U of-'
feet ;on, *thQr.(markefc; so; t|ip extreme.
.high'point was no't touched.; till: long
liter' ^Waterloo.;/; Seven ;ye.4rs Tutor;*
.10wvor, the - value 10yel 1 had: returnodt.
to about .normal. .-j :■■■ •» ■,
1It was much tho same in‘:tho expert*
’nee of the Grinman,iwax/>-Tke >■- high
.point iu wheat prices was:aot.rdaeheu
.ill after peace had boon concluded,
jur own Civil'AVaV was’.a.fltrango cir
cumstance. Tho, averago yearly prices
(it Chicago-for ‘tho wax' period- were:-^’
ifor 1801, 73 cents; for.l8Q2, 70 cents;
for 1803, 09 cents; for 1804/74 “cents;
und for: 1865/ 72 cents. In both 1803
ctnd 1805,-the'avefagb' price wasower
.mm > whbnftho;war began'. ‘ But after
no war. ended' tho'effects word •felt*.;;
■vii I800nvhat':reabh;ed*‘94 cents higher
.nan-any ".tviarvtimp: level/ Iu 18 7 !it,
up to* >1.45- .doliars; - in 1808, to; 23
V'ollars; ^in;'58G9 it: dropped agaiat to
'34.*' ;The v Bfahcbdlermifn ' war showed;
the same'thing. ' Wheat in Chicago was,
Efcbuts a bushel when war began,‘in'*.
1870; the, ilextryear it got ta i.oO dpl* .
‘<urs.:. Deuce ' wns Hdeclared/ nrid * only'
after that did wheat; in' 1872, toheli
its * highest level in this fnpveraeut.VT.ll.
dollars a bushel.'' Tt'hhorildvbb said that '
\ill\ the' priccs given hord-hro' based on
values, depreciated * paper being
reduced to that standard. . . .
WTIAT A BILLION BUfeHEL OROB
w ; , _ .. , .MEANS, *
Assuming that the United States pro
iuces ita nrst billion-bushel crop this
yeur, it will need about livo hundred -
arid • twenty million bushel9i for home
iso and ninety'riuUions* to so‘w;Teaving
ucarly four hundred millions available
-.or export,: together with any * small
uiplua tbut may bo carried over from
..yho T914 crop.. Tho.full significanoe of.
billion-bushol'wheat yield wili^bo bpt
>er apprceiufcd if it',,bo recalled that,
imely as 19UU. this; country raised,
jjftly aboutr ^aif/'ag"mucXu • '.To/putAt
^uthel-’ vvay/a*ud.include aii tho .agri
- j i»i t:uraI prodcictiuii'of, xitc' U tu ted Staf«?’•
.aggiegaii:. vaiuc: tlu£’^cai;/wiU be
'about ten billionsi df Tfollurs, Thnt is.
I.tqicc * tile ’H-ridhiXt thaU bieul Biilain
alii spend iu cati jaig"hiiilahuie oi the,
1 biggest war tho world has khown./i’ha
iu.a»o-,since lU0t> * in tho; vaiuo 6f
•bum’s- ligiicul triralproducUoh
0/1 ;u single1 year’would coyrif..SB dolin'
'Bull ’a ,\vur bills" for this ‘yiiaL' 'Tlio
1 oiai - pru'dueUou of ' AmoriuaU'.' ugricui
Mae tw lUlo would meet about ly*o
.‘hirdjs of tho year ’s expouky/to all iia
liuua, of tho wdilii-war .Our billion
bushels of wheat alone, loaded . into
>. eight cars at ‘forty thousand pounds
.0 me car;, would .require hftuou'.huu-.
.‘ii'cd thousand curs; and if in tlip rush
hi uulUc; mqyeiheut they, , should get
ongusted in a solid lino on one track,
•Jio tiuiu->vould reach from Chicago.to
Now York,. . /.*'. !•:■/*!■ :
‘ Wheat & tho greatest, food crop, of.
rbe- while race, taking the- world toge*
•nor. ’H is, in the.world’s markets,.al
most as UuiU as gold; an. international*
'umuioUityi for which tho* murkot/day-'
•j day,,hour by hour, iu every wheat-1
;ro\viiig section, reboots tho comlitions
..1 :a‘U others. fc>o, to uuderstaiid what’
a bushels of American 'wheat
-aeauB,in tiiis world of wheat, wo must
Aj&m'- stjncthiug .about,5 tho- oceah • of
:-.iheat, .tending always' to a common
\euu of value, but iullueuced by the
swing, find sweep of producing and mur
:Moling- cuudluous, just as tho tides opc
;ratp on tho wide seas. A normal year’s
product of wheat for tho world. . is
• about four billions of bushels/ so that
'-ifed United States will thia. ye^r 'pro
'iiiiee 'oneAonrth of tlie world’s supply,
fhis will be a larger proportion than 1
this country ever before offered.
-It will ,bo recalled that a fow years'
ag a certain school of JUalthusiun pes
simism'"developed. a theory that, the
World had about reached the vlimit. of
its wheat-raising capacity, and that !
’even in this country people would pre-‘
sently have to substitute other things'
for their favorite grain. Interesting
enough, but, in the light of tho facts,
uot at all convincing. In tho last
Twenty-five years tho world has in
I.orehsed. its wheat crop 70 per centT it
produced 2,431,000,000 bushels ia 2801 -
and 4,128,000,000 jn 1913.
U-Hi 3914 there was a drop of four.hua
;dred million bushels in tho^ world crop,
because almost all countries except tho ■
United States had short yields; and tho,
United-Suites, with an mipiecnnd. iited.’i
surplus,;. (Was cajled up.on to supply.
worid ;,tiiuv Imu 'uoui* wui' uuu uiop .1
shortage "on its hands at once. Small:
binder 'the American tanner, ns ho
saw '-his : wheat -sailing' away to Europe,,
manthpifter jmon'tli, at a million bushels
a duy and' preposterous prices, was able
to take a complacent view of things
around home, even if the neighbors did'
seem to ,be in hard luck!
■ THE' WHEATFIEIjDS OP THE
.. - WORLD..
Pew-things are less probable than a
wheat famine in this world. ‘ If you will
add IdgeihoY thd areas' of Texas, Illin
ois, and Iowa you will have just about
tho• .total-:of tho yoarby-year wheat
fluids of'-tho -world. They Rounder
every:suii,'in overy clime. Tropic and
aub’tropic India produces linlf as much
wheat'as does the United States while
Alaska is cnpablo of turning out an
even better quality, of tho universal
cereal. Because tho-United-States lias
for many years found' an immense de
mand'for its surplus in Europe, many
people have imagined that North Ame
rica -is- tho igrent: wheat-growing con
tinent. ■ P.ar frcpi it; Europo, in area
just'about" equal to tho United States;
•including Alaska, raises nearly three
times as much wheat ns the United
States, and.more' than twieo,as,much
as ail North Araorioa. Knssin, if its
; European, and' Asiatic, territories bo in
eluded -togethor, normally produces
rather more wheat 'than the United
States. '' Tho southern hemisphere
grows; .Chiefly in South'-America and
TVttstrnlusiflj’ ’about haifi ■ oil c?op of. tho
United States^- -Surveying the . wheat
-growing areas of tho Wdrl[l, there seems
to ba' justification" fbt the recoat' pre
diction of BroqinhaU,'tho English au
thority that wo word entering on an.
drii of lower prides and iuiuteuso sup
■Mies. Tho United States this year; is
expected to turn ou.tjv. huu.dred .niiiiipu,
'bushels (-nore.-'lipid;-ias.t-.j'eiir’S; j^dd,th:*l[
breaking croj?,-’ old wliicli the'dual dsu
uiiit V » a{ijdu.'ji-.-' ■Pii-iuiiiWv.V-Ti'ldi
whole northern .IfoiiUBpliei'C will 1 bin e
gidb'titr iireiis- i)(ali .lilstrjdiir^ -
: Our, ■ Ajijjoricuif1;. billion bushels—u ,
miiir.ter o&jjiv'AV.Mo -world’s wheat—
looks ■ tem'cnVi (finely • impyrtqpt g'yjd.lUu.i-.i
•aiii now averages inthbr.a larger .pro-!]
ductioa thduhtlio-'UniteU'jStatdS." .She
will do stiiii better- in the neat 'future,,
for' her c'dhfral Asiatt.’steppes are -in
drc'osing their yield, year after year,
]dt a rapid'rato. Vi’o aro ' too much
given to 'thinking of Siberia, as a
uuvreu, arctic wusto,” but, iu tact, Si
beria,' which . is pretty nearly us big
oa tlid United btiitos'uud (Canada toge
ther, 1 ineifi'dis vast swoops of highly
productive lauds. "If we calculate the
probable vifc’cUt-crop; of iiA.6. from the
reported'areaB aml the stutlsLiesuJ mop
eoi(ditiouS;,(lie conclusion iJ I'" I’1;"
1U15' will-Ipvoduco as much'.whoatf.aa
WU,. whi<iri!llli‘ud"jr;iuyf]'ijei.'iti;j';!ff|«;
.world’s bdhhdf y'oar!,,Tms’ is'-tko,Jview.’
of Bioomhall, as well as of. Charles M-.
- uugiieiiy, the export of-the Depart
• Meat; of Agriculture."- Assuming 'such
production, there is' immediate intqrost
no tlio;sffd6ti«nf.valm»."’Dnstiyuar',:aa
; :yi been said',, most; countries had
short' crops? .'Sl’bvdbvdr, Russia 'was utt1-,
lule Itb'okpOrt.itf surplus,' on-.account.
.of the war. iTlie. quoStioh; of this Rus*.
tun surplus, is (mooted, -ill the. reports j
point the,ddncjuslpn";’that, Russia' must.'
ihavo n iarge iunount of last year’s]
wheat In fosordo, to ddmo'.out when- tho j
Dardanelles* ho: opened, or-possibly by
'way of, Archangel.,. On. the other hand,
ra- Russian coinuiorclnl'"dgcnt lately as
sured American dfliclhls thnt the sur
plus w;as really small,' and- that the
Oovornm'dnt had planhod-to increase it
frem'this year's drop", eyCn ,if the ports
should, bo opened.;- Ho.said that it is
dcsir.od'to create a big roservo, in order
to- gunfa 'hgainst any • dxigoncy-of tlio'.
war.' ,Ttf is'-quito. possible that tho in
fluence- of .lopqning. Kllssia's ports has
bdeii oycr-UBtiomulit.A policy of .
h'oitrlliiVg-the Russian reserves..of grain,1
iwdiiid'greatly'-’inlj'reaao the burden pt
-tho United Siatca;itf;fdeanig''a'warring
atiiait ifnE'ivfiiSAT ciior etas
;i'i- done? ; . "■
: ' What 'n'hiliidn-busiidl crop1 of .wheat
hi'eabs,'at 'war-time‘pjibes, is shown by
,tho eloquent testimony of'figures that
reflect the /capacity of • the. American :
granary. In the eleven (months ended
‘J uno, 1, 1915-—practically corresponding
to tho duriition of tho war at tho time
of writing, and also to, tho marketing
season .for tlio 1014 crop—tho United'
Statos sold abroad 240,570,000 bushols
of wheat and 15,077,000 barrels of flour,.
equivalent to 317,400,000 bushols of i
iviicht. Wheat and flour together were j
!valued- at 407,011,000 .dollars,' Tho
wheat exported was valued at an aver
age;of 1.28 dollars por bushel. In only
uno -year- in the last doeado hnvo, ox
ports Of wheat equalled oud-half those
;ffdiii tho11014 Crop; ln.no'yoar have
'(lioy approached' onorhaif. tho*value to
'pi;,lured .-for-those .ef.tho 1014,'crop. The
■ i.epnti'y.’d favorable .buianco iu lurcign
l'/a,ld: 'as1 u . li'lidle passed flip billiou
ddil(fr ■ mark'-.lor ,-tli-.'-'Ji.uiil' ytaT ended
■dime Ou ililsl,' V Wheat --and., wheat 11 ranr
(iiuviihaf -lU^OOepiOl) > dollars -oil ■ this.
.'Ajltli vnli-tlie. world hurrying polders
•id utn-1 niills’, mines,’factories,'-'i'drests;
iultd' Holds; (Vitb a vast new industry or
-lauaitidn ‘liinking developing' und- sclp
•iiig'itB'proUuols: luster thuu -llidy- duuld
possibly 'bo"''turned' out; with every
'.American • resource straiuing to supply
the; extraordinary domduds - Of u dis
jointed world, it- yet "i'uniaiued.-for tho
utii'ul-llclda of ;tliis coueiry to provide
almost hall* :the phenomenal trade bai
iinqi-.-' A billion biWiols of' wheal con
stitute a blg'fact.' No ueed to'dxpuud
ilfis phase of thu 'subject;- llio ligurus
lleli ii. bc-Uei',Lhuu rliuturic ceuld. Whoii'
tltc'warVljega'n, tlio United States.was
culle!r.,upoii to pay a liuge balance of
,coiii|iiltmeuts abroad. We owed Europe
W current balauccs, parhaps half a bil-.:
lion dblhirs. Europe' wanliid it,,; add
wanted it right away; apologies,.bxteu
(lioiis; find "pidmis’cs'' for the futuro, wore
not' desired." ■' '* 1
■ ..We have paid—paid in tlio'product's
of 'our industry and our- agriculture1—
paid uliiiost all of, that half-jbUliou with
the' surplus,of our/wheat slope; -and
we euinu to the j'uaVV odd., with, a
halunce of a billion in black' upon tho
national ledger, to eoiitpiito' with , a
balance of ft halfbUIiop iuvrod .wlion
Avar began! Novels and opiCs have boon
written on wheat. Ebr many- centuries
its democracy and its universality have
been,attested, by the,fact’ tlmt-pains
taking records liave hoen kept obneefn
iii|? its, production,,,its ..value,; ifs fluc
tmitions in price tmdbr varying, condi
tions, and tliq progress in its cultiva
tion.: But where will.,bb'ifdund mbro
striking, testimony ,tbtho place of
hent'us a world-provider than in this
showing of its pa'rf'in ■ tha. American
fiscal revolution 'of the'last 'twelve
11101* * •> f : - • '•
Learning by : study must bo won:
'Twasjuo’cr ontailed.from son to'sou.
Let us'make, liaste to livo,- since every
day to a wise mau is a now life. /
. If you act ungratefully you aro dofn'g
ah injury, to all who aro in need.
' Tlio certain way to bo oraated is to
fanoy oucseif hioro cunning Uwu others.
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