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By Tony
Wright
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IF YOU were not blind, deaf, and spend
ing a vacation in Siberia for the past few
days, you might have noticcd a quick
ening of pace in what is the hottest game in
town: spot the leadership challenge.
It is hot becausc it would appear the game
is reaching its climax. Ask anyone. Every
one in Parliament House is of the view that
something is about to happen. But what,
exactly? That's when everyone gets very
vague, which is the central characteristic of
this game.
It's a bit like Dave Sorenscn's wonderful
sport of farnarkline. Everyone's heard of it,
but no-one's actually seen it or even under
stands what it might be.
It's all very mysterious — like wrestling a
wraith of smoke.
There is no absolutely identifiable leader
ship challenge from Paul Keating. He has
said nothing publicly and, if you are to
believe those who ought to know, he has not
made a single phone call to an MP asking for
support. The only "evidence" that a chal
lenge might actually be under way is a large
pile of clippings from newspapers contain
ing speculative stories quoting unnamed
sources, plus endless radio interviews with
other politicians, all denying any knowledge
of anjHhing approaching a challenge.
And yet, there can be no doubt that
Keating is stalking Hawke. Those who arc
boosting him are whispering in any car that
will listen that his time is nigh. In turn,
Hawkc's people are doing precisely the same
thing for the opposite purpose.
The pretty clear intention of Keating's
boosters is to wear Hawke down. So far, it
doesn't seem to be working. Hawke is
looking relatively relaxed. However, those
who work for him are beginning to sweat.
The wildest tip around this week is that
there will be a spill in the Labor Caucus
meeting on Tuesday, when Bob Hawke will
demand that the leadership question be set
tled once and for all.
Frankly, that's nonsense.
At best, the story is a small bushfire let
loose to see who or what comes hurtling out
of the forest. There arc those who will tell
you that Hawke's people first whispered the
story in an attempt to focus the minds of the
Caucus. There are those who will tell you it
was Paul Keating's camp who struck the
match.
Certainly it focuscd the minds of the
members and Senators — how could it not?
— but the idea that such a thing would
actually happen is fanciful.
Mr Hawke would be a fool to demand a
showdown. What he needs to do most of all
is to keep his head down this week, and then
he will be pretty well home free, for reasons
that will be explained shortly.
Keating would be a fool to demand a
showdown, too, because he would be
whipped. If he was to be so publicly beaten
in the party room, he would have few alter
natives but to offer his resignation.
The fact is, Bob Hawke's position right
now is relatively secure.
A couple of weeks ago, a few key Hawke
supporters — notably the Minister for De
fence and chief Victorian numbers man,
Robert Ray — quietly sounded out the par
ty. The result was that about 70 members
were noted down as in the Hawke camp, and
around 40 as Keating supporters.
The numbers weren't exactly kept secret.
Hawke's people made sure that everyone
was made aware that the Prime Minister
had his deputy on the back foot. When the
wind's blowing with you, there is always the
chancc that a lew malingerers will join you
for the ride.
It was soon after this that a Melbourne
radio announcer, Ian McMinn, raised the
intriguing idea that he had been told by good
sources that Mr Hawke was prepared to
demand a vote of confidcnce at next Tues
day's Caucus meeting.
The sources remain secret, though it was
possible to think up reasons as to why sup
porters of cither Hawke or Keating would
drop the word. Hawke's people might have
been trying to give the impression that the
Prime Minister was so secure in the leader
ship that he had nothing to fear. Keating's
people might have been keen to put waver
ing members on notice that they had only a
few days to make up their minds about who
to support, and to force them to put a bit of
steel in their spines.
The added touch to the story later this
week was that it was not just a confidence
vote that the Prime Minister would demand
— it would be a spill of leadership positions.
The fact is, neither of these drastic mea
sures will happen because neither would be
in Hawke's interest, and he still rules the
roost, even if the perch appears a little
shaky.
Tuesday's Caucus meeting is likely to be
the last until well into August.
Thus, if Hawke can breeze through the
meeting with the minimum of fuss, he will
win extremely valuable breathing space.
Next week, he jets off to Europe for a
fortnight. Members and Senators will return
to their electorates for the winter recess.
Those members and Senators are likely to
get a dose of what they got when they return
ed home at Christmas — a full-on spray
from street level about what ordinary voters
think of Paul Keating. It will not be pleas
ant, and it will go a long way to persuading
plenty of the MPs that Keating's time has
not yet arrived. Indeed, what they are likely
to conclude is that a Keating-led Govern
ment would be blown so far out of the water
at the next election that the Labor Party
would take dccades to rebuild.
In the meantime, Hawkc will be working
very hard to improve his stocks as leader.
He will have considerable opportunity.
Firstly, he will do what he does quite well
on his European trip — strut the interna
tional stage. He will address a disarmament
conference in Geneva; talk trade in Bonn,
Luxembourg and Paris; and take part in
high-level Commonwealth talks in London.
He will return to play a central part in the
ALP National Conference in Hobart —
which happens to coincide with the 100th
anniversary of the party, with all the senti
ment that such an occasion implies.
Hawke desperately wants this conference
to be as smooth as possible, which, perhaps,
is why he has made sure that the party's
illogical three-mine uranium policy will re
main unchanged, short-circuiting any un
Hawke still rules the roost,
even if the perch is shaky.
pleasantness from the Left.
Through all this, Keating will be hard
pressed to make any significant yardage. He
will have his head down in the Expenditure
Review Committee, undertaking the de
pressing business of working out how to
frame his first recession Budget.
His boosters are trying to suggest that the
result of today's NSW election will strength
en Keating's claim to leadership, assuming
the Carr Labor Opposition goes down in a
screaming heap, as expected. The claim is
that such a result would show what voters
think of the Hawke-led federal Govern
ment. Given that Nick Greiner's campaign
has identified Keating as the bogey-man, the
proposition is bunkum and will do Keating
little good at all.
Furthermore, as the winter months wear
on, Keating won't be able to do what he does
best of all — stand up in Parliament and
whale into the Opposition, impressing the
hell out of his colleagues. It should be re
membered that support for Keating grows in
the ranks when he has pulled off one of his
spectacular fireworks displays in Parlia
ment Conversely, it seems to shrink when
Parliament is in recess. From the end of next
week, there will be no Keating fireworks in
Parliament for more than two months.
What is crucial in all this is that time is
fast running out for Keating. It is considered
widely in the party that if he were to be made
Prime Minister (however it might happen) it
would have to be this year and, preferably,
within the next two months. With his popu
larity in the electorate in single digits, he
would need every day available before the
next election to persuade voters that, after
all, he was not the Grim Reaper. The next
election is due around March, 1992, which
leaves only 22 months to pull ofT this ex
traordinary stunt.
Meanwhile, all the leadership hoo-haa is
doing no good at all to the Labor Govern
ment's stocks. Every member and every
Senator knows it.
What must also be clear is that Hawke
and Keating can not hope to go to the next
election together. Hawke would be the lam
est duck in Prime Ministerial history, and
he and Keating would go down together.
The only conclusion, then, is that some
thing has to break..
Bob Hawke, it would seem clear, has de
cided to become an immovable object. But
Paul Keating has never been the sort of
fellow who is prepared to step back, either.
Logically, there must be an explosion.
However, if Hawke can keep the lid on
the matter next week, he may just win
enough time to defuse Keating.
Right now, Bob Hawke looks as if he will
hold on to the Prime Ministership.
But be warned. You'd be crazy to put
money on the outcome of a game of iar
narkling, but you'd be even crazier to risk
much on the outcome of the leadership con
test. Too much like wrestling smoke, y'sce.
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