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RISE AND, GROWTH" OF THE
BRITISH EMPIRE.
fJDR.lGIFFEN'8 PAPER BEFORE THE
AUSTRALASIAN SCIENCE ASSOCIA
. TION. ,
1 In' connection with the recent sittings of
the Australasian, Association for the Advancement
of science at Hobart, a paper on
The Rise and Growth of the British Empire
was read by her Robt., Giffen, L.L.D., chief
of the statistical department of the Board of
Trade in England, where at present visiting
Tasmania. Dr.- Giffen's paper is thus summarised
by the Hobart Mercury :
Dr. Giffen, who-was cordially received, by
Wigan by saying that the growth of the British
Empire warned ' doubt a familiar subject.
The figures were all in the books, but when
the subject was looked at in detail, there
were, certain aspects > not so familiar, and
ideas were suggested which it might be pró
stable to consider; "Stated most generally,
the growth, of the British Empire from a
date near the beginning of the century, just
at the close of the great wars for existence
which had then been waged, was the growth
from a population of 61,000,000 into a population
in round figures of 340,000,000. This
was principally the growth of' population on
ranch the same area. In wealth this popula-
ron was reckoned by Mr. Colquhoun, a son
temporary writer in 1812, to be worth about
£4,000,000,060 sterling, of which £2,700,
-oOO 000 were assigned to the United King-
down; . Now, the corresponding figure for
wealth must be nearly £15,000,000,000, if
not more. His own estimate for the United
Kingdom several years ago was ¿810.000,1
HK) 000, but this was valuing a little more
strictly than Mr. Colquhoun did, and in any
case the figure must be larger sow. It was
interesting to notice here that in Mr Col
quhonn's statement New South Wales is
-mentioned as a part of the Asiatic Empire
of-England, as having less than 10,000 of
white population, and as having 4860,000 of
property only. Such had been the general
growth of the Empire. To understand it
properly, however, we must divide the
Empire into groups, and see how each had
advanced.- 5 The chief natural divisions
were:d, The United Kingdom; 2, the
English- speaking self-governing colonies,
North America and Australasia ; 3, India ; A.
the Cape Colonies; and 5, the remaining
colonies and possessions. Beginning with
the United Kingdom, we find the increase
there to be from 16I5©6;000 of population in
1812 to nearly 38,009,000 at the present
time; and this increase was exclusively in
Great Britain, to the exclusion of Ireland,
where the population was 5,000,000 now as
compared with12,000,000 in 1812. In trade
- and wealth there had been similar progress.
In resent years the growth had continued.
As compared with a period 20 years ago, the
United Kingdom showed an increase of
?6;250,000 people, the increase in Great Britain
only being 7,000,000." imports and exports,
shipping owned and coal produced had in
creased even more rapidly, and it was estimated
that in the 20 years ending 1895 the
increase of wealth was from 6,001,000,000 to
30,000,000,000, and not only were we richer
per head but wealth ' was " more widely
diffused- Coming next to the English: speak
.ÍBg^se!trgovermng-colomes;~we found that,
altogether at the present time, there is a
population of 9,000,000 in these colonies, ,
«boat-6,250,000ia North America and over I
3,750,000 in Australasia and with the exception
of 500,000 only in North; America in
1912, this is all'aunaw growth in 80. years.
In dealth there badjbesBa similar increase.
The amount in Australasia alone must probably
now be from) ¿1,200,000,000 to
¿1,500,000,000 sterling, and even allowing
a somewhat smaller sum for North America,
the, total is gigantic compared with the
.¿860,000 estimated by Mr., Colquhoun for
Australasia in 1812, and with about 46,000,000
estimated by him for North America. The
amount of the growth in this section was not
so great as in the United Kingdom, but the
rate of growth are greater. In the last 20
years the growth of population in these colonies
wasr3,500,000 showing the rapid rate of
increase, but still not so great an amount of
increase as the increase at Herne, which was
6,250,000, Coming next to India we found
the growth there in 20 years to be about
42,000,000, to 284,000,000 of people, while
in the last 20 years only the growth
must at least have been 38,000,000, or 15
per cent. This was in every way a remarkable
increase, and considering the character
of the population of India, it showed of
itself what peculiar responsibilities were
preparing for us in that quarter. Di India
this was also the growth of a people increasing
in wealth, few things being more remarkable
in recent years than the rapid growth
of Indian trade, and of the import of fine
goods and treasure which were consumed
or hoarded by the masses of the people
of India. The next group was that of the
Cape colonies, when the increase was from
120,000 of population early in the century to
over 2,000,000 now, while in the final group!
of all, the remaining colonies and possessions,.
the population, which was about 2,500,000
early in the century, and about 5,000,000 20
years ago, was now over 7,000,000. Still
both sections, in spite of this progress, were
inconsiderable when compared with the first
three sections. In effect, the growth of the
Empire, on which attention should be concentrated,
was mainly the growth of the
United Kingdom itself, the most important
in amount; next the growth of the English
speaking, self-governing colonies, not so im-'
portent in amount as the growth of the
United Kingdom, but more important in respect
of the rate of growth and next, the
growth of India, which was altogether of an
astonishing kind, difficult to realise and full
of perplexing problems. Four leading ideas
are suggested in connection with this growth.
First, the main growth of the Empire was as
yet in those parts which were practically
under one and the same Government. The
growth was mainly that of a cotèrent masse
The United Kingdom, India and the group
formed by the miscellaneous colonial possessions,
and in part the Cape colonies, were
all practically governed from (Westminster.
There were dependent Parliaments and conn,
oils and other machinery of government in
India and these colonies, but the Parliament
at Westminster was effectively master of the
whole. An exception to the rule was formed
by the English speaking self governing
colonies which were practically independents
but here the increase, though important in
itself, was as yet not so large in amount as
the growth in the remainder of the Empire
The inference was that on the mere ground
of statistics there was no apparent increase
of the need for Imperial Federation in recent
years, though there might be on other
grounds. This was in no way meant as an
argument against the policy of those who
were promoting federation, it was a bare
statement of fact. It was also important to
note that half of the English speaking self-governing
colonies were represented by one
Government, that of the Canadian Dominion,
and if there were to be an Australasian
Federation, that of itself would be a great
step towards the objects kept in view by
those who desired Imperial Federation, because
the Imperial Government would then
have to consult with two other Governments
in Imperial questions, which would not be so
difficult a matter as to consult with half a
dozen or more. The next idea suggested was
that on the whole the growth of the Empire
had been quite in proportion to the growth
of competing powers. Some of the great
powers we reckoned with in former days' had
almost stood still while we were advancing.
This was especially the case with France and
Austria, which are now pretty much what
they were 20 years ago, and which had advanced
very little in numbers by comparison
since 80 years ago. In Germany and
Russia in Europe there was an increase on a
par with our own, the increase in Russia
being even more in numbers, but the rate of
increase being less, so that relatively to
Russia we had grown. The only great community
which had advanced more rapidly
than ourselves was the United States, where
population had increased about 56,000,000
since the early part of the century, and about
25,000,000 in the last 20 years, but this was
the increase of people of the same blood, and
it might be hoped of a people who would always
be in friendly alliance with us. In the
East, where the Asiatic Empire of Russia
came into competition with our Indian
Empire, the increase we showed was truly
prodigious compared with that of Russia. The
population of Russia in Asia was still about
20,000,000 only, whereas that of India was
nearly 300,000,000 and the increase in the
last 20 years was nearly twice what the total
population of Russia in Asia now was. li we
made a right use of our opportunities there
fore we were a stronger and not a weaker
empire as regards our contemporaries than
we had been. A third idea suggested was
the relative diminution of the Irish difficulty.
As had been seen, the great growth at home
was exclusively a growth in Great Britain, so
that the disaffected part Of Ireland, even if it
continued disaffected, was not so big relatively
to Great Britain as it was. Last of all the
idea was suggested that it is the policy of
free-trade which has been "the prevailing
policy all through the century, and of late
years throughout the Empire, taken as a
whole. This followed from what had been
said as to the relatively greater growth of the
Empire in the United Kingdom, in India, and
in the miscellaneous colonies of the Empire,
which were all countries of free-trade policy,
being directed by the free-trade Government
at home, than in the English speaking self-governing
colonies?, which might be assumed
to be all more or less countries of protectionist
policy. In the United Kingdom alone,
making 80 years ago the starting point, there
was an increase of>21,000,000 of population
as compared with an increase of 9,000,000 in
the English speaking self-governing colonies
and making 20 years ago the starting point
the figures were 3,500,000 and 6,250,000
respectively. This was without reckoning
the growth in India and the other
colonies which was to be reckoned in the
same side. In foreign trade alone the free
trade sections of the Empire showed imports
and exports of 1,000,000,060, which had increased
300,000,000 in' 20 years, while the
other sections of the Empire showed imports
and exports of 175,000,000, and an increase
of about 75,000,000 in 20 years;. The in
crease in 20 years in the free-trade sections
was much more than the total imports and
exports of all the rest of the Empire together.
The matter might be put another
way. Even where protectionist policy prevailed,
it was only a small part of the industries
carried on which received protection
-at the outset 10 per cent. Granting that as
much as this percentage received protection
in North America and Australia, then it
would follow that a very small percentage
indeed of the industries of the Empire, perhaps
not more than 3 per cent., received
Wotection,'Ior North America and Australasia
together could not be reülrob'ed:e*íu»ore
things about a tenth of the Eioptr«^Handthe
tenth of a tenth was 1 per cent. Within the
area of the British Empire, therefore, the
prevalent and increasingly prevalent policy
waáWtaióiy free trade, and not as was wanted
times supposed, the policy of protection.' This
tree not an argument as to the expediency or
inexpediency of free-trade or protection respectively.
The majority might be following the
wrong policy and not the right. But it was'
desirable to understand which policy covered
most aground, and "Bad in fact been making
most ¡ way. Similarly throughout the world
it was not protectionist policy which covered
most' ground, or which had been advancing
most in recent years. Some of the countries
where protectionist policy prevailed were
stationary countries like France and Austria,
and, when it was considered how few industries
were protected anywhere the conclusion
inevitably was that the prosperity of the,
world was the prosperity of industries carried
on under free-trade conditions. In conclusion,
it might be ached what was the position
of the Empire at the present moment, and
what was the immediate prospect ? To this the '
answer must be that the growth of the Empire, ,
whether in the United Kingdom or in India,
gives no sigh of meeting a check,' and even if
Canada and Australasia continue growing atas
great rate as they have done, it will be some
years before their position relatively to the
rest of the Empire is materially changed.
The time will no doubt come when the faster
rate of growth, in Australasia especially, will |
tell ; but by that time we may hope much
else will have changed, and in some way the
real unity of the growing Empire will have
been provided for. There was also no reason
to anticipate any change in the rate of growth
of contemporary nations which was likely to
alter the position of the Empire in the world.
The Irish difficulty again was plainly not
likely to increase. With regard to free-trade
policy it was hardly likely that there would
be any change in the policy of the Government
of the Empire, for the simple reason
that the hard facts which compelled the
people of England into a free trade policy
50 years ago are as compulsory or even"
more compulsory in their influence now.
The only things, substantially, which could be
protected in the United Kingdom by means -
of import duties were the growth of some
food stuffs and raw materials, and to pay
duties on such articles would be fatal to the
whole economy of English trade. The mere
name of taxes on food would excite the
working classes to revolt just as the actual
duties did 50 years ago, while to tax raw
materials would be to destroy the foreign
trade. It is not theory, but the compulsion
of hard facts, which makes us all free-trading
at home, and this is not an individual opinion
of my own, but the conclusion of leading
minds on all sides of politics. And the facts
do not change. Similar facts are also compelling
the leading nations of the world more
and more in the direction of free-trade,
whether they like it or not. In all respects
then we may apparently look for developments
of the Empire for some time in the
direction described to-night. A more and
more united thoroughly free-trade Empire is
the goal towards Which we are tending.
(Applause.)
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