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JUPJIN, YESTERDAY AMD TO-DAY
' —
THE RIDDLE OF THE FUTURE.
World history has seen no more amazing
transformation than £hat of Japan, which
in the short space of fifty years has risen
from a feudal state, with the civilisation
and customs of the middle aees. to the
position of a Great Power. In 1870 Japan
was a negligible factor in the world's de
velopment; and to-day her destiny and
future are of vital importance to the world.
A striking sketch of her position and de
velopment is contained in the pages of
the "Nineteenth Oentury" for July. Writ
ten by Professor Joseph H. Longford, late
British consul at Nagasaki, it gives an
arresting picture of the progress of the
Japanese people, and the writer takes a
somewhat gloomy view of the possibilities
of the future in the course of his article,
a summary of which is given below.
It was not until July, 1859, that Japan
was opened to the trade and residence of
the citizens of the five Western Treaty
Powers — Great Britain, the United States,
Russia, Holland and Prance. For over
200 years previously she had remained in
utter seclusion from the rest of the world,
foreigners being forbidden to land on her
shores, or Japanese to quit them. She
was entirely ignorant of Western progress
and civilisation; her people were governed
under a rigid form of feudalism, and the
empire was parcelled out into fiefs, the
mass of the people being simply feudal
serfs, with no consciousness whatever of
political right or freedom. The Emperor
was merely the theoretical ruler, the ad
ministrative power being in the hands of
the Shoguns or military viceroys. Thus
in 1853, when an American fleet arrived to
break her isolation for ever, Japan actually
possessed the same appliances for both
Peace and war, and the same methods of
communication by land and sea, as she had
in 1637. The treaty was duly signed, and
in 1850 the country was thrown open to
foreign traders belonging to the Treaty
Powers. Of the class of Europeans who
proceeded to exploit tl)c country, Profes
sor Longford paints a sorry picture, de
scribing them as unscrupulous and greedy,
eager to make money by any means, and
indulging in various fraudulent methods;
while those Japanese traders who had deal
ings with them were not of the highest
type (the nest commercial families holding
aloof), and were also guilty of commercial
immorality, soon earning an unsavory re
putation by their methods. There docs
not appear to have been much to choose
between the two; but the exploitation by
the Europeans of two loosely-drawn clauses
of the treaty, to tbe suffering and detri
ment of tbe Japanese people as a whole,
intensified the growing Japanese hate and
contempt for foreigners, which in a few,
years found expression in a demand for
their expnlsion.
This was coupled with a revolutionary
movement to restore the Emperor and to
overthrow the Shogun Government. The
nation was rent by civil war, and the
peace and tranquillity of the days of isola
tion straightway became a thing of the
past. Europeans in Yokohama were mur
dered, and the British Legation was burnt
to the ground, a leader among the incen
diaries being "a youth who, in later years,
under a new regime, became the principal
agent in developing Japan into a great
modern power, and was known to all thu
world as one of the greatest statesmen, the
late Prince lto." Japanese strongholds
were bombarded by British and Allied
fleets, and European troops had to protect
the foreign settlement at Yokohama.
Eventually the Shogun was overthrown,
and the Emperor replaced as supreme
ruler; but the Europeans, though bitterly
hated, remained m a country where the
outward appearance itnr! inner spirit were
still those of the Middle Ages." The
awakening of Japan had now, however, be
gun m earnest, and by the year 1871 the
j1 a was over, and feudalism was
dead, the barons Laving surrendered their
domains and retainers and become private
citizens; more significant still, tho cry for
the expulsion of the foroigner was no
longer heard, and instend the nation was
eager to learn what Western civilisation
Jiad_ to teach. Lacking as tliey did such
institutions as an army or navy; a national
systern of education; a national revenue;
and railways, postal and telegraph systems,
the Japanese statesmen had immense diffi
culties to face. _ Yet, as "Professor Long
ford points out, in less than 50 years Japan
has fought two great wars and humbled
two great empires; lias annexed two colo
nies, overcome domestic discord and con
verted a nation of serfs into one that is
constitutionally governed. The writer
gives an idea of the amazing extent of this
rapid development in the following strik
ing passage:—
On her first essay on the money markets
.rVUjPe>, 'n "10 year 1870, Japan was per
mitted, after much hesitation and with
r-ttB ko. -')e result, to borrow
41-000,000. For this insignificant loan she
had to pay interest at the rate of 19 per
cent., to earmark its proceeds for railway
construction, and to mortgage her customs
. ns security for its amortisation. Sin/ lias
. now attained a financial status which en
ables her to lend money to Groat Britain.
Her national revenue is £74,000,000. and it
entirely covers her expenditure. Her na
tional debt is £950,000,000. . . . She
conducts a foreign trade the value of
which in the first eight months of 1918 ex
ceeded £229,000,000. ... In 1S71 there
were 18 miles of railway in operation. In
1917 there were 7090 miles. In 1871 her
total steamship tonnage was 20,934, In
1917 it was, reckoning only steamers of
over 1000 tons, 1,716,104 tons. In 1900 her
production of coal was 7,500,000 tons. In
1917 it was 17,250,000 tons. Her manufac
ture® hi"'®? large sale, not only in the Far
and Mid East, but in Europe, Airica and
Australia Her own native-born
population was. in 1871, 33.000.000. In 1017
it was over 66,500,000, and it is steadily in
creasing at the rate of 800,000 each year.
The acquisition of Korea has given her, ac
cording to her own returns, another
17 ,000,000 subjects, and that of Formosa
3,500,000 more, so that the total population
of the empire now exceeds 77,000,000. Her
navy, whether estimated by the strength of
her ships or tbe efficiency of the personnel,
is the third in the world. Her army ranks
a equal with those of the greatest military
powers.
The great war naturally afforded Japan
opportunities for extending her commercial
interests, and in performing her share of
the military operations she incurred little
expenditure of life or money, while money
from abroad has been poured into her cof
fers. Thus slie now controls the carrying
trade of the Far East, and has a eure foot
ing in many of its markets; and what she
lias acquired, suggests Professor Longford,
she means to keep and to extend, using
every possible means to that end. ''Can
Great Britain, " he askB, "staggering under
colossal debts, with workmen who threaten
to demand a system of six hours a day,
five days n week, wnges £1 a day, and a
pension of two-tlnrds at 50, compete with a
country that is not only solvent, but rich;
where workmen, as capable as British in
most respects . . . arc content to work
twelve hours a day, seven dnys a week, for
weekly wages of less amount than the
daily wages that are to be demanded in
England?" Japan, he points out, stands
in the Far East as crcat a nnl'Hcal oower
as over England stood in the West. She
has strengthened her influence in Siberia
and northern China; has closed lier grasp
on the rich province of southern Man
churia, and is about to do so on Shantung,
with its 37,500,000 of lionnlaliou, arid does
net hesitate to talk of th.e time when the
great Empire of China may be, if not
nominally hers, as completely under her
influence as if it were so in reality. China
lies at her doors asking for pence and
security of life and property which its
own Government docs not seem able to
secure. "Cannot Japan nrovide these, nnd
in doing so confer a benefit on the world
by organising and (caching, as she has done
her own people, s kindred nconlo capable
of so much as are the Chinese ? Who is
to say 'No' to her? Both in Korea and
Formosa she has shown herrelf n capable
colonising nower. Her methods are not
gentle. Her subordinate civil officials have
much of the disnositmn- nnd spirit of the
Prussian In tbe exercise of loeil nmWffv
they do not succeed. in wiqning the good
Will or lovsltv or even the eo-to-t of tli„
subordinate people, and her soldiers, when
their services are called upon, do not show
much comnunction in the use of shot and
steel on unarmed rabbles. But h both
colonies she has succeeded in introducing
a degree of material prosperity that was
.Wiknnwn before."
W'th rrenrd »o Jnpm's position to-dsr
m world politics, Professor Longford
writes as follows; —
"Janan has taken nart in the PariB
Conference as one of the five Groat
, Powers who wero instrumental' in bring
ing the war to a successful conclusion, f Ho
iK-si. > a ..... , . . . i, . , ...»
ei.tcied the war without delay or -hesita
tion, without sordid haggling of any kiud,
i i houoraine compliance with her terms of
alliance with Great Britain. She has douc
ah that was expected of her iu the war,
thoroughly and evidently, and she has scut
to the Confercuce as her chief representa
tive one of her greatest statesmen, an ex-
Brenner, a noble of high degree and
ai:cieut lineage, one of the nobiea of tho
old Imperial Court at Kioto. It would be
giotesque to compare Italy as a Great
Bower with Japan, either military or com
mercial, and yet the Italian representative
acorns, throjghout the Conference, to
b&ve been admitted into an inner circle of
four from which the Japauese has been
excluded. How far he was able, when
tls us left out in the . cold, to iufhicnce the
decisions of the Conference we shall not
know till, years hence, its full history is
written, but those decisions, where they
directly affect the interests of Japaii, are
fat from satisfactory to her. They have
gnen her the virtual control of the great
province of Shantung, with all its present
and potent! il sources of wealth and its in
finite value as an adjunct to Port Arthur
a a military and naval base, but in doing
si they have pleased neither Japan nor
China. Japan is irritated at not obtaining
the nominal as well as the de facto
ownership of the province; China is still
more so at not having it restored to her
without limitations of any kind on her
rightful sovereignty, as she had a right to
expect if any reality at all is to be given
to the principles of the League of Na-
' hong. Japan is further irritated by the
iumre to confer on her the absolute pos-
.«tsaiou of the North Pacific Islands which!
she took from Germany, and most of. all
she is irritated by the denial to her of the
ruciul equality, with all its material and
mural consequences, which she very pro-
.perly claims as her undoubted due — due
net only to the services she has rendered
m the war, but to her incontrovertible
status as a civilised nation, on a far higher
plane than are many of the nations of
south-east Europe."
Professor Longford draws the conclusion
that the four great men at the Peace Con
ference have blundered badly — "most of all
our own representative." He suggests
that the results muy be deplorable, and
may possibly be fraught at no distant
future with consequences so grave that
one shrinks from contemplating them
now. And they might have been avoided,"
be adds, "by expert knowledge, by tact
.1. "y the recognition of actual fact." As
it is, the Japanese delegates return home
vexed and disappointed to give an account
to a high-spirited nation that feels itself
both wronged and insulted.
"Our treaty of alliance with Japan,"
continues the professor, "expires on 13th
July, 1921 — only two years hence. While
it lasts Japan may be relied upon to ob
serve faithfully all its terms to the last
clause of its contents and the last hour of
't-i existence. To her no solcmu treaty can
ever become a Bcrap of paper. But when
it expires by eliiux of time she will re
cognise no obligation other ,thau her own
material interests to renew it. No senti
ment binds her to Great Britain more
than to any other European Power. She
may have cause for gratitude to Great
Britain for substantial favors in the puat,
but what has beeu told iu this article will
show that she has equal cause for memories
nfciare ie reverse pleasant. Where
will her material interests lead her ? Ante
bellum Germany was always an object of
admiration to her, and it was on Germany
that she modelled her own military 63'steui,
winch she has carried to such perfection
that the pupil has surpassed the teacher.
During the war, when it had only run its
mid-course, there was a violent outburst
of pro-German sympathy in the whole
Japanese press, almost without exception.
It was claimed that Japanese spirit had
far more in common with that of Germany
than with that of the Allies, and that the
material interests of Japau nnd Germany
might harmoniously march together— Ger
many licr European sphere and Japau
m her Asiatic— in a way in which it could
not be hoped those of Japan and the Allies
would ever do. Professors, pressmen and
politicians all joined in the outburst, and
Cabinet Ministers and military men sympa
thised. It is Bilent now, but has its spirit
ceased to exist t German leaders already
openly assert that 25 years hence, a men
tally, morally, economically and militantiy
regenerated Germany wiF arise from her
present debasement to c.icr on a war of
revenge, with econom j and- military
strength far beyond that with which she
entered the war which is now over. On
which side will Japan then be found ?"
Professor Longford finalb' sums up the
character of the Japanese people to-day in
the t following words:— "A united and
patriotic people, all actuated by one con-
trolling motive, the interests of their sove
reign and country; a community with large
material requirements and able to pay for
them with the products of its own indus
try; ambitions, proud ari fefr'ss; agtrres
Rive, but nrndreit: sensible nf the Mesnes
of peace, but always ready for war; where
want is unknown; where there are no legal
class distinctions, and social distinctions
involve neither offensiveness nor ill-will:
where the tragedies of life are always sub
merged in its joys; which is known and
respected through all the world as a great
military and commercial power— such is
Japan in this year of grace 1919, after sixty
veers' experience of foreign trade and
foreigners. Twenty-five years hence what
will she he ?"
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