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A.N.U.; FELLOWSHIP GIVES EVIDENCE
South Africa 'could
explode' in 1980s
Tbday's conflicts could pale into in
significance compared with the; likely explosion
in .South Africa in the next decade, a parlia
mentary committee was told yesterday.
The sub-committee on southern Africa of the Joint
"Committee on Foreign Affairs.and Defence was
hearing evidence from Mr Mohammed Ayoob, senior
research fellow at the ANU department of interna
tional relations.'
Mr Ayoob said that unless the structure of
apartheid was dismantled, the economic'and political
factors at work within the republic would move the
country inexorably toward'an explosion.
"The Soweto uprising, it has been argued.by some,
was merely a flash in the pan", he said. "However,
it could as well be the tip of an enormous iceberg''.
The latter proposition seemed closer to the truth.
"South Africa, increasingly isolated within its own
laager, provides for students of conflict an almostideal
type situation for study and analysis", he said.
"It is a situation where all possible components'of
conflict-domestic, regional and international as well
as those based on race and class - are concentrated
and in large measure.
"This is why when South Africa blows up, it may
become the. conflict of the 1980s, before which all
other preocupations of today's conflict may pale into
insignificance". .
The liberation of Mozambique and Angola and the
increased pace of transformation in Zimbabwe
Rhodesia and Namibia held significant lessons for
those interested in transforming southern Africa into
Azania. ? ' ?
The vital role of armed revolutionaries had not
been lost on the politically-aware sections of the black
majority in South Africa.
"It is expected to make the guerilla option more
tempting for them in the early 1980s, particularly
when friendly governments would be available to
provide them with sanctuaries and act as conduits for
the supply of arms", he said.
"Moreover, the whole weight of the African States,
the Organisation for African Unity and its liberation
committee, will be on the side of the guerillas.
"Given the enormity of the stakes involved, one
.cannot effectively rule out even the use of Nigerian
oil for political ends in an escalating South African
. .conflict"..
Given the Soviet Union's increasing global reach
du'ritig the 1970s and the resulting change in the
super-power equation in Africa, militant Azanian
. nationalists .were very likely to come to the conclusion
that they had a much better chance of reaching their
political objective in the 1980s than they ever had -'
before.
"The prospect of Soviet help in this process (even
if at one remove through Cuba or the frontline African
States) would help boost morale and change the ethos
of the Azanian resistance, to the extent that a military
confrontation with the white regime, on balance,
would definitely appear an attractive option", he said.
"This stage might be reached by the mid-1980s
and the latter half of the next decade might then
witness a qualitative escalation of armed guerilla and
commando activity in southern Africa leading to a
'full-scale armed insurrection".
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