A Model for Forecasting Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland
John Fitz Gerald
This paper briefly outlines the methodology used to develop a new model of energy demand. It contains a description of the model equations used to determine the sectoral demand for energy. It details the set of engineering relationships in the electricity generation block, while then detailing the determination of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission levels. It then outlines the links between this energy model and the main HERMES macroeconomic model. It looks at the performance of the energy model within sample, and contains some preliminary estimates of the links between energy prices and taxes and the level of carbon dioxide emissions. Appendix 1 details the notation used in the databank, while Appendix 2 lists the full set of equations included in the current version of the energy model.
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