English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: A Latent Variable Approach to Forecasting the Unemployment Rate C. L. Chua; G. C. Lim; Sarantis Tsiaplias

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/104650
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • A Latent Variable Approach to Forecasting the Unemployment Rate
Author
  • C. L. Chua
  • G. C. Lim
  • Sarantis Tsiaplias
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • A forecasting model for unemployment is constructed that exploits the time-series properties of unemployment while satisfying the economic relationships specified by Okun’s law and the Phillips curve. In deriving the model, we jointly consider the problem of obtaining estimates of the unobserved potential rate of unemployment consistent with Okun’s law and Phillips curve, and associating the potential rate of unemployment to actual unemployment. The empirical example shows that the model clearly outperforms alternative forecasting procedures typically used to forecast unemployment.
  • Forecasting, Unemployment, Unobserved Components.
  • RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2009n19
Language
  • English
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