THE EVOLUTION OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Ivan O. KITOV
The growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a constant numerator. Statistical analysis data from 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2007 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual increment of GDP per capita for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, and Italy. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend in annual increments. The fluctuations around relevant mean increments are characterized by practically normal distribution (with Levy tails). Developing countries demonstrate annual GDP per capita increments far below those for the studied developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.
economic development, economic trend, business cycle, GDP per capita
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