Economic Outlook For 1990 And 1991: Firm Domestic Growth, But High Foreign Risk
The Gulf crisis has worsened the short-term outlook for the world economy and thus also for Austria. If spot prices for crude oil will not substantially exceed 30 $ per barrel the negative impact on growth, consumer prices and the current account are likely to be limited given the recent decline in the dollar exchange rate. However, there is a substantial risk that oil prices may go up much further and push the world economy into a recession like twice in the seventies. This would hold particularly in the case of supply shortages during a military conflict. Until early autumn the Austrian economy showed unabated strength and the growth forecast for the whole of 1990 remains unchanged at 4½ percent. For 1991, the changed outlook for oil prices, the dollar and growth abroad call for a downward adjustment of the increase in GDP from 4 percent to 3½ percent.
Prognose für 1990 und 1991. Beständige Inlandskonjunktur, aber hohes Auslandsrisiko; Economic Outlook For 1990 And 1991: Firm Domestic Growth, But High Foreign Risk
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