English, Article edition: Divergence in the International Growth Process. Medium-term Projections for the World Economy Stephan Schulmeister

User activity

Share to:
 
Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/97689
Physical Description
  • article
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Divergence in the International Growth Process. Medium-term Projections for the World Economy
Author
  • Stephan Schulmeister
Physical Description
  • article
Notes
  • Over the next few years, the U.S. will attempt to reduce the budget deficit and unemployment by way of an expansive monetary policy, a goal that is likely to be achieved. Moreover, the U.S. will succeed in maintaining an undervalued exchange rate for the dollar. Under these circumstances, the U.S. economy might grow by 2½ percent on average until the year 2000, ½ percentage point faster than the economies of Western Europe and Japan. The slowdown in economic growth since the middle of 1995 had the effect of raising budget deficits and unemployment in Western Europe. If fiscal policy responds to the deceleration with further cuts in government expenditures, there is a risk that the growth slowdown will deepen to a genuine recession. This can be expected to impede the integration process of the EU, because various countries might be tempted, more than now, to relieve their own problems through devaluations. This forecast is based on the assumption that the EU countries, through more intense cooperation, will succeed in avoiding a recession: the German Bundesbank will markedly lower key interest rates in the first half of 1996, facilitating a reduction in European interest rates; to combat unemployment, some specific measures might also be taken, such as stimulating investment in infrastructure. Under these assumptions, the economies of Western Europe might grow by 2 percent during the period 1996-2000. The Japanese economy will continue to expand at a much lower rate than in the 1970s and 1980s. Growth in exports and investment will be considerably weaker than in the past: the sustained overvaluation of the yen lowers the competitiveness of the Japanese economy not only vis-à-vis other industrialized countries but also vis-à-vis competitors in East Asia. Moreover, Japanese exports will suffer from the weakness of the European market. Over the forecast period, GDP in Japan is likely to grow by no more than 2 percent per year on average.
  • Divergenzen im internationalen Wachstumsprozeß. Mittelfristprognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2000; Divergence in the International Growth Process. Medium-term Projections for the World Economy
  • RePEc:wfo:monber:y:1996:i:3:p:187-201
Language
  • English
Contributed by
OAIster

Get this edition

  • Set up My libraries

    How do I set up "My libraries"?

    In order to set up a list of libraries that you have access to, you must first login or sign up. Then set up a personal list of libraries from your profile page by clicking on your user name at the top right of any screen.

  • All (1)
  • Unknown (1)
None of your libraries hold this item.
None of your libraries hold this item.
None of your libraries hold this item.
None of your libraries hold this item.
None of your libraries hold this item.
None of your libraries hold this item.
None of your libraries hold this item.
None of your libraries hold this item.

User activity


e.g. test cricket, Perth (WA), "Parkes, Henry"

Separate different tags with a comma. To include a comma in your tag, surround the tag with double quotes.

Be the first to add a tag for this edition

Be the first to add this to a list

Comments and reviews

What are comments? Add a comment

No user comments or reviews for this version

Add a comment