Mapping corporate drift towards default: Part 2: a hybrid credit-scoring model
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a hybrid logistic model by using the inputs obtained from BSM equity-based option model described in the companion paper, “Mapping corporate drift towards default – Part 1: a market-based approach” that can more accurately predict corporate default. Design/methodology/approach – In a set of logistic regressions, the ability of the market value of assets, asset volatility and firm's leverage structure measures to predict future default is investigated. Next, a check is made as to whether accounting variables and other firm specific characteristics can provide additional significant information in assessing the real world credit quality of a firm in a multifactor model Findings – From analysis of 150 publicly-traded Indian corporates over the year 1998 to 2005 it was found that in a volatile equity market like India, one needs to enhance the BSM model with other accounting information from financial statements and develop hybrid models. The results in this paper indicate that a mix of asset volatility, market value of asset and firm's leverage structure along with other financial and non financial factors can give us a more accurate prediction of corporate default than the ratio-based reduced form model. Originality/value – The hybrid model developed in this paper allows us to integrate information from the structural model as well as profitability of firms, liquidity risk, other firm specific supplementary information and macroeconomic factors to predict real world corporate distress potential through a multivariate analysis.
Credit, Emerging markets, India, Modelling, Risk analysis
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