English, Article edition: USE OF BAYESIAN METHOD FOR ASSESSING VESSEL TRAFFIC RISKS AT SEA SHENPING HU; XUDONG LI; QUANGEN FANG; ...

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/82193
Physical Description
  • article
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • USE OF BAYESIAN METHOD FOR ASSESSING VESSEL TRAFFIC RISKS AT SEA
Author
  • SHENPING HU
  • XUDONG LI
  • QUANGEN FANG
  • ZAILI YANG
Physical Description
  • article
Notes
  • Risks associated with a vessel traffic system at sea are analyzed according to the elements in this system and a new method is developed to ensure safe ship operation. Based on Bayes' point estimation and probability influence diagram to estimate the traffic accidents related to vessel traffic, an analysis model is established for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the vessel traffic system at sea. After the analysis on occurrence likelihood of the accidents related to ship traffic, a structure on the basis of Bayesian networks is developed to obtain the QRA of their relative risks. QRA is also put forward after analyzing the features and situations of the vessel traffic system and identifying the corresponding hazards including characteristics of those hazards. The risk distributions of ship traffic are described and results are presented on QRA in relation to various features by using this risk assessment model. This method, verified in the cases of QRA, turns out to be feasible by the use of identified posterior probability.
  • Ship, risk assessment, Bayesian point estimation, Bayesian belief network, probability influence diagram, safety factor
  • RePEc:wsi:ijitdm:v:07:y:2008:i:04:p:627-638
Language
  • English
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