Time Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis
A structural import demand equation is derived and estimated for a large number of countries, using recent time-series techniques that address the problem of non-stationarity. The average price elasticity is close to zero in the short run but is slightly higher than one in the long run. A similar pattern hold for import elasticities: the short-run income elasticities are on average less than 0.5, while the long-run income elasticities are close to 1.5. This paper also analyses the small sample properties of both the ordinary-least-squares (OLS) and the fully modified (FM) estimators of the short- and long-run elasticities using Monte Carlo methods. Copyright 1998, International Monetary Fund
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