English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Technology, Credit and Confidence during the Roaring Twenties Sharon Harrison; Mark Weder

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/76577
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Technology, Credit and Confidence during the Roaring Twenties
Author
  • Sharon Harrison
  • Mark Weder
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • We compare and contrast alternative explanations of the Roaring Twenties. Starting with the RBC model as a benchmark, we also examine a model with indeterminacy and self-fulfilling expectations (SFE), and one with credit shocks. Historical and anecdotal evidence provides support for each of these set-ups. We use US data from 1889-1953 to estimate each of the relevant shocks, and the resulting model-driven output. Our results indicate that all three models replicate well the experience of the 1920s. We then estimate "horserace" regressions, which provide evidence of the explanatory power of each model above and beyond the others. Here the SFE model emerges as the winner, leading us to conclude that self-fulfilling confidence was the primary driving force behind the Roaring Twenties.
  • Sunspots, Indeterminacy, Credit Shocks, Roaring Twenties
  • RePEc:brn:wpaper:0901
Language
  • English
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