English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility Gerald Carlino; Robert DeFina; Keith Sill

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/75098
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility
Author
  • Gerald Carlino
  • Robert DeFina
  • Keith Sill
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • This study documents a general decline in the volatility of employment growth during the period 1956 to 2005 and examines its possible sources. Estimates from a state-level pooled cross-section/​time-series model indicate that aggregate and state-level factors each account for an important share of the total explained variation in state-level volatility. Specifically, state-level factors have contributed as much as 16 percent, while aggregate factors are found to account for up to 46 percent of the variation. With regard to state-level factors, the share of state total employment in manufacturing and state banking deregulation each contributed significantly to fluctuations in volatility. Aggregate factors that are quantitatively important in accounting for volatility include monetary policy, the state of the national business cycle, and oil-price shocks. ; Supersedes Working Paper 07-11/​R
  • Employment
  • RePEc:fip:fedpwp:09-9
  • This study documents a general decline in the volatility of employment growth during the period 1960 to 2002 and examines its possible sources. A unique aspect of the analysis is the use of state-level panel data. Estimates from a pooled cross-section/​time-series model indicate that aggregate and state-level factors each explain an important share of the total variation in state-level volatility. Specifically, state-level factors have contributed as much as 29 percent, while aggregate factors are found to account for up to 45 percent of the variation. With regard to state-level factors, the share of state total employment in manufacturing and state banking deregulation each contributed significantly to fluctuations in volatility. Among the aggregate factors separately identified, monetary policy, changes in the inventory-to-sales ratio, changes in the ratio of total trade to GDP, and oil prices significantly affected state-level volatility, although to differing degrees.
  • RePEc:fip:fedpwp:07-11
Language
  • English
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