Non-Violent Opposition to Peace Processes: Northern Ireland's Serial Spoilers
This articleargues the crucialstage to the success or failure of a peace agreement is the implementation stagebecause it is at this stagethat the agreement becomes subject to politicalforces which havenot been involved in the negotiation process.It builds on Frensley’sresearch (1998)that the post-negotiation ratification process is a determinant of the success of failure of an agreement bypositinga more dynamic theory.Itargues that the roleof elites in shapingthe preferences of their constituencyneeds to be factored into the analysis of the ratification process and that the position of parties in a democratic frameworkis important in shapingtheir strategies.It builds on Stedman’sresearch on spoilers to argue that non-violent democratic spoilers pose a particular difficultyfor peace agreements and uses evidence from Northern Ireland to show how non-violent spoilers have been the main determinant for the failure of both the Belfast Agreement of 1998and the Sunningdaleexperiment of 1973– 4.
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