A Co-integration Analysis Approach to European Union Integration: The Case of Acceding and Candidate Countries
This paper examines the long-term financial integration of second-round acceding and candidate countries’ with the European Union and the US stock markets during the Accession Process. The lowpair wise correlations between these markets imply portfolio diversification opportunities, yet correlation is a short-term measure. The long-term stock market interdependence is analyzed with Johansen (1991) cointegration approach, which indicates no long-term relationship between the second-round countries and the EU and US stock markets. Yet Engle-Granger (1987) causality test presents evidence of a casual flow from European and US equity markets to Croatian stock market and from Turkish Stock market to Bulgarian stock market suggesting a short-term lead-lag relationship amongst. The results indicate that the completion of accession negotiations with Bulgaria and Romania and ongoing negotiations with Croatia and Turkey have not yet resulted in the complete financial integration of these markets with the European Union. They still offer significant long-term diversification opportunities for the European as well as the US investors.
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