We present a meta-analysis of cycles in historical economic data. The literature on stochastic and deterministic cycles in variables such as the consumer price index, employment, interest rates, commodity prices, and GDP is huge and scattered, but our meta-analysis reveals various communalities. Our key finding is that there is a set of cycle periods that is common across most economic variables. We suggest that these universal cycle periods are fundamental for economic stability.
This paper reports on the Wald test for a1=a2=0 in the regression model (t t y = + cos(2 t ) + sin( 2 t ) + u 1 2 ? p a ? p µ a) where ? is estimated using nonlinear least squares (NLS). As this situation is not standard we provide critical values for further use. An illustration to quarterly GDP in the Netherlands is given. A power study shows that choosing inappropriate starting values for ? leads to a quick loss of power. Key words: Harmonic Regressors, Critical Values.
In order to set up a list of libraries that you have access to,
you must first login
or sign up.
Then set up a personal list of libraries from your profile page by
clicking on your user name at the top right of any screen.