English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Exponential Smoothing and the Akaike Information Criterion Ralph D. Snyder; J. Keith Ord

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Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Exponential Smoothing and the Akaike Information Criterion
Author
  • Ralph D. Snyder
  • J. Keith Ord
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • Using an innovations state space approach, it has been found that the Akaike information criterion (AIC) works slightly better, on average, than prediction validation on withheld data, for choosing between the various common methods of exponential smoothing for forecasting. There is, however, a puzzle. Should the count of the seed states be incorporated into the penalty term in the AIC formula? We examine arguments for and against this practice in an attempt to find an acceptable resolution of this question.
  • Exponential smoothing, forecasting, Akaike information criterion, innovations state space approach
  • RePEc:msh:ebswps:2009-4
Language
  • English
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