English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? Tara M. Sinclair; Fred Joutz; Herman O. Stekler

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/66055
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?
Author
  • Tara M. Sinclair
  • Fred Joutz
  • Herman O. Stekler
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • Recent research has documented that the Federal Reserve produces systematic errors in forecasting inflation, real GDP growth, and the unemployment rate, even though these forecasts are unbiased. We show that these systematic errors reveal that the Fed is “surprised” by real and inflationary cycles. Using a modified Mincer-Zarnowitz regression, we show that the Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one quarter ahead.
  • Forecast Evaluation; Federal Reserve; Systematic Errors; Recessions
  • RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2009-001
Language
  • English
Contributed by
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