2009, 2007, 2006, pt-PT, Thesis edition: O impacto da publicidade nas vendas no sector dos sumos e refrigerantes Pargana, Sónia Alexandra de Sousa

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Physical Description
  • 1382215 bytes, application/​pdf
  • Master thesis
Published
  • 2009-03-03T14:14:34Z
  • 2007
  • 2006-12
Language
  • pt-PT

Edition details

Title
  • O impacto da publicidade nas vendas no sector dos sumos e refrigerantes
Author
  • Pargana, Sónia Alexandra de Sousa
Other Authors
  • Correia, Eduardo
  • Cardoso, Margarida
Published
  • 2009-03-03T14:14:34Z
  • 2007
  • 2006-12
Physical Description
  • 1382215 bytes, application/​pdf
  • Master thesis
Subjects
Notes
  • Mestrado em Marketing
  • Neste trabalho pretende-se construir um modelo exploratório, explicativo e preditivo de vendas de algumas marcas de sumos e refrigerantes (Coca Cola, Sumol, Lipton Ice Tea, Compal, Nestea, Fanta, Santal e 7 Up) considerando como variáveis independentes, os investimentos em publicidade above the line e, ainda, outras variáveis consideradas relevantes na literatura. Na explicação e previsão das vendas de diversas marcas de sumos e refrigerantes utilizam-se árvores de regressão, nomeadamente o Algoritmo CART – Classification and Regression Trees. Foram construídas árvores de regressão associadas às diversas marcas referidas com base num conjunto idêntico de variáveis explicativas. Em resultado obteve-se uma boa capacidade preditiva (medida mediante validação cruzada) para os modelos propostos: a proporção de variação das vendas explicada pelas árvores de regressão CART encontra-se entre os 65% e os 90% (com excepção de um caso em que o “R2” é de 58%, correspondente à marca Fanta). No entanto, para 4 marcas, das 8 analisadas, a capacidade preditiva situou-se entre os 80% e os 90%. No sentido de interpretar os resultados foi ainda avaliada a importância relativa das variáveis preditivas nos modelos, importando referir que as variáveis com maior poder explicativo sobre a variável dependente VENDAS, são: as vendas de períodos anteriores (de curto prazo, 1, 2 e 3 meses, mas também de longo prazo, 12 e 24 meses), a distribuição ponderada e o preço médio. Os investimentos em comunicação têm uma importância relativa mais reduzida na previsão das vendas das marcas estudadas. Os resultados obtidos mostraram-se consistentes nas diversas marcas.
  • The main objective of this study is to develop an exploratory model in order to predict and explain soft drinks and juices brands sales. Namely, Coca Cola, Sumol, Lipton Ice Tea, Compal, Nestea, Fanta, Santal and 7 Up sales. Explanatory variables include advertising investments in above the line means and also include additional predictors which were found relevant in the literature. The Algorithm CART – Classification and Regression Trees was found an appropriate methodology to deal with this prediction task. Several Regression Trees were selected: one for each of the referred brands. Models were all based in a similar group of independent variables. Most of the obtained models exhibit a good predictive ability: the proportion of explained sales variance ranges from 65% to 90% (measures were obtained by means of 10-fold cross validation). Fanta regression tree reveal the lowest value of 58% for this measure of fit. Regression Trees of four brands from the eight studied yield upper values from 80% to 90% for proportion of explained sales variance. In order to interpret the results, the relative importance of predictors in the models was evaluated. The independent variables which have a larger explanatory power are: the sales in previous periods (sales corresponding to short term periods of 1, 2 and 3 months before but also long term sales: 12 and 24 months before), the weighted distribution and the average brands’ price. The advertising investments have less importance to explain or predict sales. The obtained results were consistent through all the brands.
  • PARGANA, Sónia Alexandra de Sousa - O impacto da publicidade nas vendas no sector dos sumos e refrigerantes [Em linha]. Lisboa: ISCTE, 2007. Tese de mestrado. [Consult. Dia Mês Ano] Disponível em www:<http:/​/​hdl.handle.net/​10071/​1271>.
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  • pt-PT
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