The "V-Factor" : Distribution, Timing and Correlates of the Great Indian Growth Turnaround
Following Bai (2004) and Bai and Ng (2004) we estimate a common factor representation of a panel of output series for India, disaggregated by 15 states and 14 broad industry groups. We find that a single common "V-Factor" accounts for a large part of the significant shift in the cross-sectional distribution of state-sectoral output growth rates since the mid -1980s. The time profile of the V-Factor appears to be closely related to trade liberalization.
Economic Growth, Factor Models, Principal Components, Convergence, Divergence, Indian States
The ratio of Indian to US per capita output over the past 45 years has displayed a distinctive "V"-shaped pattern. We show that a strikingly similar V-shaped pattern is visible not just in aggregate output .figures, but also as the primary determinant of long-term movements in the cross-sectional distribution within the All-India total, at both sectoral and state output levels. We also carry out preliminary investigations of correlates of the "V-Factor", using a new panel data set for Indian states from 1960 to 2005 that extends and encompasses all previous datasets relevant to macroeconomic analysis of the Indian states.
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