A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns
M. Hashem Pesaran
This paper applies an extended and generalised version of the recursive modelling strategy developed in Persaran and Timmermann (1995) to the UK stock market. The focus of the analysis is to simulate investors search in in real time for a model that can forecast stock returns. It demonstrates the extent to which monthly stock returns in the UK were predictable over the period 1970-1993 after allowing for model specification uncertainly and possible shifts in the forecasting model. Due to a set of unique historical circumstances, UK stock returns were extremely volatile in 1974-1975, and we discuss how to design a modelling approach capable to accounting for this an similar low probability events. We find evidence of predictability in UK stock returns which could have been exploited by investors to improve on the risk-return trade-off offered by a passive strategy in the market portfolio. Alternative interpretations of this finding are briefly discussed.
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