Macroeconomic And Monetary Policies From The Eductive Viewpoint
The "eductive" viewpoint provides a theoretically sophisticated analysis as well as an intuitively plausible shortcut to the study of expectational coordination in economic models. From the review of expectational criteria in a class of dynamical models of macroeconomic theory, the paper shows how such an "eductive" viewpoint completes and deepens rather than contradicts standard analysis. It however argues that the "eductive" approach, when correctly implemented, challenges the conditions of learning in infinite-horizon models with infinitely-lived agents. In particular, in a simple monetary model adopting such a framework, Taylor rules may be stabilizing, in the demanding sense under scrutiny, but only within a small window for the reaction coefficient.
The quality of the coordination of expectations, a key issue for monetary policy, obtains from different, but interrelated, channels: both the credibility of the central bank intervention and the ability of decentralized agents to coordinate on a dynamical equilibrium matter. For both purposes, it is important to understand how agents learn. Indeed, many studies on monetary policy focus on learning processes involving evolutive, real-time learning rules (such as adaptive learning rules). The eductive viewpoint, as illustrated in previous works, partly abstracts from the real-time dimension of learning, with the aim of more directly capturing the systems’ coordination-friendly characteristics. The paper first presents the analytical philosophy of expectational coordination underlying the eductive viewpoint. Following the review, the paper explores the differences between the traditional viewpoint and this competing viewpoint as they relate to standard monetary policy analysis. This exploration is tentative, yet promising.
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