English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: The WTO Trade Effect Pao-Li Chang; Myoung-Jae Lee

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/40317
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • The WTO Trade Effect
Author
  • Pao-Li Chang
  • Myoung-Jae Lee
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • Rose (2004) showed that the WTO or its predecessor, the GATT, did not promote trade, based on conventional econometric analysis of gravity-type equations of trade. We argue that conclusions regarding the GATT/​WTO trade effect based on gravity-type equations are arbitrary and subject to parametric misspecifications. We propose using nonparametric matching methods to estimate the `treatment effect' of GATT/​WTO membership, and permutation-based inferential procedures for assessing statistical significance of the estimated effects. A sensitivity analysis following Rosenbaum (2002) is then used to evaluate the sensitivity of our estimation results to potential selection biases. Contrary to Rose (2004), we find the effect of GATT/​WTO membership economically and statistically significant, and far greater than that of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP).
  • GATT/​WTO; GSP; treatment effect; matching; permutation test; signed-rank test; sensitivity analysis
  • RePEc:siu:wpaper:06-2007
Language
  • English
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