English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: On the dynamics of trade patterns. Andrea Brasili; Paolo Epifani; Rodolfo Helg

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/36995
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns
Author
  • Andrea Brasili
  • Paolo Epifani
  • Rodolfo Helg
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • RePEc:cri:cespri:wp115
  • In this paper we analyse the dynamics of trade patterns in the six largest industrialised countries and in eight fast growing Asian economies. For each of these countries we study the shape of the sectoral distribution of an index of trade specialisation and its evolution over time. Our analysis shows a marked difference between the advanced and the emerging countries as far as the degree of persistence is concerned: the former are in fact characterised by a highly persistent trade pattern, while the latter's specialisation is highly mobile. However, the two groups of countries are more similar as far as the evolution of the degree of specialisation is concerned: although emerging countries are still more specialised than the industrialised countries, both groups show a tendency toward a reduced polarisation and a more symmetric distribution of the specialisation index. This evidence is in line with the traditional trade theory, in which changing comparative advantage is the determinant of a changing trade pattern. On the contrary, this evidence does not support the idea that self-reinforcing mechanisms are prominent in international trade specialisation.
  • RePEc:liu:liucec:61
  • In this paper we analyse the dynamics of trade patterns in the six largest industrialised countries and in eight fast growing Asian economies. For each of these countries we study the shape of the sectoral distribution of an index of trade specialisation and its evolution over time. Our analysis shows a marked difference between the advanced and the emerging countries as far as the degree of persistence is concerned: the former have in fact a highly persistent trade pattern, whereas the latter show a rapidly changing trade specialisation. However, the two groups of countries are more similar as far as the evolution of the degree of specialisation is concerned: although emerging countries are still more specialised than the industrialised countries, both groups show a tendency toward a reduced polarisation and a more symmetric distribution of the specialisation index. This evidence is in line with the traditional trade theory, in which changing comparative advantage is the determinant of a changing trade pattern. On the contrary, this evidence does not support the idea that self- reinforcing mechanisms are prominent in international trade specialisation.
  • trade patterns, trade specialisation, comparative advantages, stochastic kernels
  • RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0004006
Language
  • English
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