English, Article edition: Comparing the reliability of a discrete-time and a continuous-time Markov chain model in determining credit risk Su-Lien Lu

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Physical Description
  • article
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Comparing the reliability of a discrete-time and a continuous-time Markov chain model in determining credit risk
Author
  • Su-Lien Lu
Physical Description
  • article
Notes
  • This article compares the reliability of a discrete-time and a continuous-time Markov chain model for estimating credit risk and for investigating loans of Chiao Tung Bank in Taiwan. The continuous-time Markov chain model can capture the migration of rare events. The time-varying risk premium was also extracted from the loan value and corresponding risk-free price and the transition matrix was transferred to risk-neutral transition matrix by the time-varying risk premium. Finally, the empirical results indicate that the discrete-time Markov chain model may be underestimating the default probability in both the lowest risk and speculative rating class. Comparing the loss given default and the NPL ratio, the continuous-time Markov chain model is more reliable and effective for gauging the credit risk of bank loans.
  • RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:16:y:2009:i:11:p:1143-1148
Language
  • English
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