English, Article edition: "Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises Manasse, Paolo; Roubini, Nouriel

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Physical Description
  • article
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • "Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises
Author
  • Manasse, Paolo
  • Roubini, Nouriel
Physical Description
  • article
Notes
  • This paper investigates the economic and political conditions that are associated to the occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Classification and Regression Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity, or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively "risk-free" zone. This classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction.
  • Sovereign debt Crises Default
  • RePEc:eee:inecon:v:78:y:2009:i:2:p:192-205
Language
  • English
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