English, Article edition: Measures of Cyclical Stabilisation Showing Early Effects. Economic Outlook for 2009 and 2010 Marcus Scheiblecker

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Physical Description
  • article
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Measures of Cyclical Stabilisation Showing Early Effects. Economic Outlook for 2009 and 2010
Author
  • Marcus Scheiblecker
Physical Description
  • article
Notes
  • The global slump in business activity is leaving deep traces in the Austrian economy. On the back of a steep fall in exports and domestic investment, real GDP is set to fall by 3.4 percent in 2009, with private consumption as the only stabilising component. The measures taken worldwide in response to the crisis are showing first effects. The decline of demand and output in the euro area should give way to stagnation as from the middle of the year. This is also expected for Austria, allowing growth to resume by a modest 0.5 percent in 2010. On the labour market, the adverse trend will extend into next year, with further job losses accompanied by a rise in unemployment.
  • RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2009:i:3:p:124-134
  • In the wake of the international economic crisis, Austrian exports have fallen precipitously year-on-year since early 2009. Yet, the fiscal counter-action taken in the industrialised countries is showing early positive effects. Not only in Austria, but in the entire euro area and the USA, business surveys suggest a stabilisation of demand and output as from the middle of this year. Nevertheless, activity in Austria will once more decline in the second quarter as compared with the previous period. The cyclical pattern is thus broadly in line with the one underlying the previous WIFO forecast of last spring. However, since results for the first quarter turned out weaker than expected, WIFO is taking down its projection for GDP for the whole of 2009 to 3.4 percent. The forecast of a stabilisation in 2010 with a growth rate of 0.5 percent is being maintained.
  • Konjunkturprognose Österreich
  • RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2009:i:7:p:463-475
Language
  • English
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