English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: The Baby Boom: Predictability in House Prices and Interest Rates Robert F. Martin

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Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates
Author
  • Robert F. Martin
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • asset pricing, yield curve, moderation
  • RePEc:red:sed006:84
  • This paper explores the baby boom's impact on U.S. house prices and interest rates in the post-war 20th century and beyond. Using a simple Lucas asset pricing model, I quantitatively account for the increase in real house prices, the path of real interest rates, and the timing of low-frequency fluctuations in real house prices. The model predicts that the primary force underlying the evolution of real house prices is the systematic and predictable changes in the working age population driven by the baby boom. The model is calibrated to U.S. data and tested on international data. One surprising success of the model is its ability to predict the boom and bust in Japanese real estate markets around 1974 and 1990.
  • Housing - Prices ; Interest rates ; Asset pricing ; Econometric models
  • RePEc:fip:fedgif:847
Language
  • English
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