English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility Henry E. Siu; Nir Jaimovich

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Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility
Author
  • Henry E. Siu
  • Nir Jaimovich
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • We investigate the consequences of demographic change for business cycle analysis. We find that changes in the age composition of the labor force account for a significant fraction of the variation in business cycle volatility observed in the U.S. and other G7 economies. During the postwar period, these countries experienced dramatic demographic change, although details regarding timing and nature differ from place to place. Using panel-data methods, we exploit this variation to show that the age composition of the workforce has a large and statistically significant effect on cyclical volatility. We conclude by relating these findings to the recent decline in U.S. business cycle volatility. Through simple quantitative accounting exercises, we find that demographic change accounts for approximately one-fifth to one-third of this moderation.
  • RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14063
  • We investigate the consequences of demographic change for business cycle analysis. We find that changes in the age composition of the labor force account for a significant fraction of the variation in business cycle volatility observed in the U.S. and other G7 economies. During the postwar period, these countries experienced dramatic demographic change, although details regarding extent and timing differ from place to place. Using panel-data methods, we exploit this variation to show that the age composition of the workforce has a large and statistically significant effect on cyclical volatility. We conclude by relating these findings to the recent decline in U.S. business cycle volatility. Using both simple accounting exercises and a quantitative general equilibrium model, we find that demographic change accounts for a significant part of this moderation.
  • Business cycles - Econometric models ; Demography
  • RePEc:fip:fedmsr:387
  • In this paper we investigate the consequences of demographic change for business cycle analysis. We find that changes in the age composition of the labor force account for a significant fraction of the variation in business cycle volatility observed in the US and other G7 economies. During the postwar period, these countries have experienced dramatic demographic change, though details regarding extent and timing differ from place to place. Using panel data methods, we exploit this variation to show that the age composition of the workforce has a large and statistically significant effect on cyclical volatility. We conclude by relating these findings to the recent decline in US business cycle volatility. Through simple quantitative accounting exercises, we find that demographic change accounts for a significant part of this moderation
  • RePEc:red:sed006:815
Language
  • English
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