Demographic Transition and Industrial Revolution: A Coincidence?
All industrialized countries experienced a transition from high birth rates and stagnant
standards of living to low birth rates and sustained growth in per capita income. What
contributed to this transformation? Were output and population dynamics driven by
common or separate forces? We develop a general equilibrium model with endogenous
fertility in order to quantitatively investigate the English case. We find that mortality
decline significantly influences birth rates. Increased productivity has a negligible
effect on birth rates but accounts for nearly all of the increase in per capita output,
industrialization, urbanization, and the decline of land share in total income
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