Post-socialist transformation and growth regime: some comments about the Chinese case
Ilyess El Karouni
Purpose – This paper attempts to show that Chinese post-socialist transformation has involved a deep change in growth regime. Design/methodology/approach – The authors begin by detailing the institutional background of the study: the Chinese post-socialist transformation. They compare growth regimes both in Maoist and post Maoist eras. Therefore, by using official data, the paper deals with the difficulties and challenges of the current growth regime. Findings – The new growth regime could be particularly difficult to manage regarding China's dependence on external demand in a context of low domestic demand. In particular, the main difficulty to which this growth regime could be confronted with concerns the occurrence of an external contraction in the US. The authors then try to assess why such an event may appear by providing a list of external risks to emphasize the economic vulnerability of China. Practical implications – This paper is essentially intended for Chinese policy-makers who wish to adopt a more balanced growth strategy in the long-run. Originality/value – The paper develops an alternative view on the macroeconomic situation of China. In particular, it insists on its vulnerability through external demand.
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