English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma Análise para o Período 1995-2007 Mário Jorge Mendonça; Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires; Luiz Alberto Medrano

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/2420
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma Análise para o Período 1995-2007
Author
  • Mário Jorge Mendonça
  • Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires
  • Luiz Alberto Medrano
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • Este artigo tem por objetivo avaliar como a administração da dívida pública no Brasil afetou a sua sustentabilidade no período 1996-2007. A partir de 2003 o gerenciamento da dívida brasileira buscou alterar a combinação entre custo e risco,privilegiando o primeiro. Ao utilizar modelos Markov-Switching para captar esta mudança de comportamento em sua administração, projeta-se a dívida pública a partir de simulações de Monte Carlo. Os resultados indicam que a dívida pública brasileira pode ser considerada sustentável no médio prazo. This paper aims to evaluate how public debt management in Brazil has affected its sustainability in the 1996-2007 period. In 2003 Brazilian public debt management changed the trade off between cost minimization and risk minimization emphasizing the first element. Using a Markov-Switching model in order to model this policy change we access fiscal sustainability with Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that Brazilian public debt is sustainable in the medium run.
  • RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1342
Language
  • English
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