Investment Determining and Projections of the Growth in Bulgaria
Analyzed are the dynamics, the determining premises and the reflection of the investment process on the growth rate in Bulgaria in the period of the 90s and the beginning of the new century. The made empirical index analysis shows discrepancy between the varying dynamics of the investments and the realized growth rate, remaining even with the positive tendencies in the two processes in the last years. The induced investments exceed the autonomous ones, the investments have strong sensitiveness to the total directions of the growth and the often changes in it. The growth rate delays from the increase of the investments, the share of the capital-creation in GDP is insufficient to generate high and sustainable growth. The studied multiplying effect of the investments shows insufficient average level of the returns of the made additional investments. The calculated conditional partial coefficients of multiplication gravitate in the last years of the period from about 1, when the increase of GDP is weakly investment determined despite the significant increase of the investment costs. The recovered conditions of the growth activate the investment projects of the firms, while the impact of the deposit – credit processes is retaining due to the discriminating interest rates’ levels. Under the necessary is the stimulating of the growth by the individual consumption and the export, which increase not rhythmically and in deformed structures. The increased attention on these restraints of the investments can cooperate for an increase of the volume and returns from the investments, for increase of the growth rate in Bulgaria.
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