English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/20251
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research
Author
  • David Hendry
  • Michael P. Clements
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • forecasting, non-stationarity, structural breaks, co-breaking, pooling, model selection
  • RePEc:oxf:wpaper:078
  • This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent results can be judged. We compare this framework to a previous formulation, which was silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster. We describe a number of aspects which it illuminates, and draw out the implications for model selection. Finally, we discuss the areas where research remains needed to clarify empirical findings which lack theoretical explanations.
  • RePEc:nuf:econwp:0211
Language
  • English
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