2008, English, Article, Working paper edition: Global business cycles : convergence or decoupling? / M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, and Eswar S. Prasad. Kose, M. Ayhan.

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Global business cycles : convergence or decoupling? / M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, and Eswar S. Prasad
 
Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/208741705
Physical Description
  • 1 online resource (50 pages) : illustrations, tables.
Published
  • [Washington, District of Columbia] International Monetary Fund, 2008.
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Global business cycles : convergence or decoupling? /​ M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, and Eswar S. Prasad.
Also Titled
  • Ebrary Academic Complete International Subscription Collection.
Author
  • Kose, M. Ayhan.
Other Authors
  • Otrok, Christopher.
  • Prasad, Eswar.
  • ebrary, Inc.
Published
  • [Washington, District of Columbia] International Monetary Fund, 2008.
Copyright
  • 2008
Content Types
  • text
Carrier Types
  • online resource
Physical Description
  • 1 online resource (50 pages) : illustrations, tables.
Series
Subjects
Summary
  • This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Notes
  • Includes bibliographical references.
  • Online (ebrary)
Access Conditions
  • Electronic resource (access conditions)
Other Form
  • Print version Kose, M. Ayhan. Global business cycles. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2008
Language
  • English
ISBN
  • 9781451914542
Dewey Number
  • 338.542015195
Libraries Australia ID
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Libraries Australia

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