Predictions of Portuguese export market performance consequent on European market integration tended to come up short. To explain why, the author presents and analyzes the technical literature. The author compares the forecasts with actual results and then develops a simple model to extrapolate and replicate the prE-1992 Portuguese experiences. This model builds on relatively rapid growth already under way. The author holds that relative export industry market share as a function of relative sales effort explained export performance. Further, the author argues that four country industry concentration ratios as a function of changes in revealed comparative advantage as well as "home market" institutions explain the competitive situations faced by Portuguese exports both before and after 1992. The concatenation of these four variables yields successive equilibria. Copyright 2002 Western Economic Association International.
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