English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe. Eva Ferreira; María Isabel Martínez; Eliseo Navarro; ...

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/183431
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe.
Author
  • Eva Ferreira
  • María Isabel Martínez
  • Eliseo Navarro
  • Gonzalo Rubio
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.
  • Economic Sentiment Indicator, yield spreads, consumer confidence expected real activi
  • RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:200511
Language
  • English
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