Growth in an oil abundant economy: The case of Venezuela.
Venezuela growth experience in the last fifty years is characterized by a high economic growth rate during the period (1950-70), and a low economic growth rate in the last thirty years. In spite Venezuela is an oil abundant economy, this growth experience is mainly accounted by the evolution of the real GDP in the non-oil sector of the economy. Further- more, we make a growth accounting to quantify for how much the growth experience in the non-oil sector is due to physical capital accumulation and we find that most of its growth experience is accounted by the evolution of its TFP. On the other hand, the evolution of the oil rents have a high correlation with the TFP in the non-oil sector in the period (1950-80). During the high growth rate period, Venezuela experienced an impressive modernization. In consequence, the use of these oil rents, by the Government, may help to understand, at least partly, the growth experience of the non-oil sector of the venezuelan economy. We have constructed a model to check the importance of the venezuelan public policies.
Venezuela´s growth experience over the past fifty years is characterised by a high economic growth rate from 1950 to 1977 and a low economic growth rate over the 1977-2003 period. In particular, we show that the country has been in a ‘great depression’ since the late seventies. We also show that although Venezuela has an oil abundant economy, this growth experience is largely due to the evolution of its real non-oil GDP. We perform a growth accounting exercise to quantify the extent to which the growth experience in the non-oil sector is a result of physical capital accumulation, finding that non-oil sector behavior can largely be explained by the evolution of TFP. Finally, we also make some correlations to determine whether the oil sector has affected the non-oil sector, either through its capital accumulation or through its TFP. We find that the correlation between oil revenues and capital per worker or non-oil TFP is always negative.
Venezuela's growth experience over the past fifty years is characterized by a high economic growth rate from 1950 to 1970 and a low economic growth rate in the last thirty years. Although Venezuela is an oil abundant economy, this growth experience is largely accounted for by the evolution of its real non-oil GDP. We use growth accounting to quantify the extent to which the growth experience in non-oil sector is due to physical capital accumulation and we find that whereas in the period 1950-1980 most of the growth experience is accounted for by the evolution of TFP, this is not the case in the period 1980-1998. Nonetheless, the Venezuelan GDP is mainly driven by non-oil GDP; the use of oil revenues by the government may help us to understand, at least in part, the growth experience of the non-oil sector of the Venezuelan economy. Through the calculation of some correlations, we find a positive correlation of oil rents with physical capital, and of oil rents with non-oil TFP in the period 1950-1970, when the flow of oil rents was relatively high (the good times). However, in the period 1971-1998, there is a negative correlation of oil rents with non-oil TFP and with physical capital. Finally, we construct a simple growth model to study the effect of the oil rents, managed by the government, on private physical capital accumulation.
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