English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Integrating fire risk into the management of forests Pedro Cosme da Costa Vieira

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/182701
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Integrating fire risk into the management of forests
Author
  • Pedro Cosme da Costa Vieira
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • In a standard cash-flow data-sheet analysis, the quantification of the impact of exogenous variables and management decisions on the investment’s Net Present Value is limited to only a few scenarios. This perspective is insufficient for an efficient risk management in complex business environments. In this work, I present a dynamic programming model that takes into consideration fire risk. Having applied the model to forest management, I conclude that when fire risk increases, it is optimal for the manager to increase the area used per tree and the cut-off weight of stems. Rather than increasing the business Expected Net Present Value (that, with real interest rate of 3%/​year, is between 1.5€/​m2 and 2.2€/​m2), the optimal strategy decreases the business risk. Additionally, I conclude from the model that there is no private incentive to carry out fire risk prevention.
  • Risk Management, Project Evaluation, Expected Net Present Val
  • RePEc:por:fepwps:290
Language
  • English
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