English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: A PCA Factor Repeat Sales Index (1973-2001) To Forecast Apartment Prices in Paris (France) Baroni, Michel; Barthélémy, Fabrice; Mokrane, Mahdi

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/169770
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • A PCA Factor Repeat Sales Index (1973-2001) To Forecast Apartment Prices in Paris (France)
Author
  • Baroni, Michel
  • Barthélémy, Fabrice
  • Mokrane, Mahdi
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • In this paper we address the issue of building a repeat sales index, based on factors. This is an extension of a companion paper, Baroni, Barthélémy and Mokrane (2001, BBM) in which we had built a factorial index as a selected linear function of existing economics and financial variables. Here we offer a more general and robust model based on a Principal Components Analysis (PCA). We apply this methodology to the Paris residential market. We use the CD-BIEN database that contains more than 220 000 repeat sales transactions for residential apartments in the Paris area covering the period 1973-2001 period. Our PCA index for the Paris and close surrounding area is estimated and its characteristics and robustness are analysed depending on: estimation period, choice of observations, periodicity and reversibility. We then compare it to the traditional WRS repeat sales index developed by Case &​ Shiller (1987). Finally we show that contrary to the WRS index, our index can be used to forecast apartment prices.
  • Real estate indices; Repeat sales; Factors; PCA; Index forecasting
  • RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-05002
Language
  • English
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