English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland José Luis Torres Chacón; Jesús Rodríguez López; José L. Torres

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Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
Author
  • José Luis Torres Chacón
  • Jesús Rodríguez López
  • José L. Torres
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • This paper uses a combination of VAR and bootstrapping techniques to analyze whether the exchange rates of some New Member States of the EU have been used as output stabilizers (those of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), during 1993-2004. This question is important because it provides a prior evaluation on the costs and benefits involved in entering the European Monetary Union (EMU). Joining the EMU is not optional for these countries but mandatory, although there is no definite deadline. Therefore, if the exchange rate works as a shock absorber, monetary independence could be retained for a longer period. Our main finding is that the exchange rate could be a stabilizing tool in Poland and the Czech Republic, although in Hungary it appears to act as a propagator of shocks. In addition, in these three countries, demand and monetary shocks account for most of the variability in both nominal and real exchange rates.
  • RePEc:pab:wpaper:06.12
  • This paper uses a combination of VAR and bootstrapping techniques to analyze whether the exchange rates of some New Member States of the EU have been used as output stabilizers (those of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), during 1993-2004. This question is important because it provides prior insights on the costs and benefits from entering the European Monetary Union (EMU). For these countries, joining the EMU is not optional but mandatory, although there is not a definite deadline. Thereby, if the exchange rate works as a shock absorber, monetary independence could be retained for a longer period. Our main finding is that the exchange rate could be a stabilizing tool in Poland and the Czech Republic, although in Hungary it appears as a propagator of shocks. Also, in these three countries, demand and monetary shocks account for most of the variability in both nominal and real exchange rates.
  • EMU, exchange rate, Structural VAR, stationary bootstraps
  • RePEc:cea:doctra:e2006_02
  • This paper uses a combination of VAR and bootstrapping techniques to analyze whether the exchange rates of some New Member States of the EU have been used as output stabilizers (those of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), during 1993-2004. This question is important because it provides a prior evaluation on the costs and benefits involved in entering the European Monetary Union (EMU). Joining the EMU is not optional for these countries but mandatory, although there is no de…nite deadline. Therefore, if the exchange rate works as a shock absorber, monetary independence could be retained for a longer period. Our main …nding is that the exchange rate could be a stabilizing tool in Poland and the Czech Republic, although in Hungary it appears to act as a propagator of shocks. In addition, in these three countries, demand and monetary shocks account for most of the variability in both nominal and real exchange rates.
  • RePEc:fda:fdadef:06-03
Language
  • English
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