Our Future Pensions and Globalisation: An Exploration of the Issue Using the INGENUE Model
The INGENUE Research Team
The demographic characteristics and disparities of pension schemes will lead to strongly contrasting trends in the supply and demand for capital across the various regions of the world, in this century. Capital transfers, which a priori are mutually beneficial, should be possible, thanks to financial globalisation. However, simulations carried out with the INGENUE model indicate that the scale of such transfers may put Europe in a delicate financial position, towards the middle of the century. The world outlook over the very long term therefore sheds new light on the debate surrounding European pension schemes. Two options are thus simulated: a postponement in the age of retirement or a partial substitution of redistribution schemes in favour or capitalisation. Both reforms, and especially the latter, would improve Europe's financial position. But capitalisation implies significant sacrifices in terms of living standards. Later retirement, along with the maintenance of full pension rights would seem to be preferable.
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