Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade
The prolonging economic recession in Argentina has put under question the relevance of its exchange rate regime. This raises the issue on exit options from a currency board arrangement. While dollarization has been highly debated, other exit options might be considered. The exchange rate is also a key macroeconomic variable which influences a country competitiveness with spillover effects on its balance of payments position. Thus the shift from a currency board arrangement to another exchange rate regime might impact Argentina's external trade. To address these issues, we assess export equation with exchange rate variable for Argentina based on gravity models. Then we present various exit options scenarios to gauge the impact an exchange rate regime shift might have on Argentina's exports.
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