We simulate IMF quota shares at the 2030 horizon for 49 countries or zones, based on longrun projections for GDP, trade and foreign direct investment. Several formulas are simulated and the impact of excluding intra-Eurozone flows is studied. We find that substituting population for GDP is the only way of significantly raising the quota share of Sub-Saharan African countries. The US and Chinese shares are higher with uncompressed formulas relying heavily on GDP. In all cases, China doubles or triples its quota share from 2001 (our base year) to 2030 while the US one is roughly stable. Conversely, the Eurozone’s quota share is bound to decline by around 6 percentage points and removing intra-Eurozone flows leads to an additional drop by 3 to 4 percentage points.
Long-run projections; quotas shares; International Monetary Fund
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