Forecasting the 2006 Democratic Takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives
Carl E. Klarner
Carl Klarner and Stan Buchanan (K&B) have applied an innovative approach to predicting congressional elections by pooling candidate, district-level, and national variables. National tides favored the Democrats in 2006, in the form of pro-Democratic voting intentions, low presidential approval ratings, and moderately slow growth in real disposable income. More than 6 months prior to the election, the K&B model predicted a 22-seat gain for the Democrats with a 95% chance that the party would take control of the House. The final tally gave the Democrats a gain of 30 seats, far above the 15 seats required for the party to recapture the House. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007
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