An Open-Economy Macro-Finance Model of Internatinal Interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK.
This paper develops a multi-country macro-finance model to study international economic and financial linkages. This approach models economic and financial variables jointly using both to throw light on such issues. The world economy is modelled using data for the US and aggregate OECD economies as well as the US Treasury bond market, using latent variables to represent a common inflation trend and a US real interest rate factor. We find strong evidence of OECD effects on the US, calling into question the standard closed economy macro-finance specification. The two global latent variables also affect the UK economy, together with two additional UK-specific latent variables. These economic linkages also help to explain the comovement of yields in the US and UK Treasury bond markets.
macroeconomics, spillover effects, common shocks, macro-finance model, the term structure of interest rates
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