In this paper, we elaborate a formula for determining the optimal strike price for a bond put option, used to hedge a position in a bond. This strike price is optimal in the sense that it minimizes, for a given budget, either Value-at-Risk or Tail Value-at-Risk. Formulas are derived for both zero-coupon and coupon bonds, which can also be understood as a portfolio of bonds. These formulas are valid for any short rate model that implies an affine term structure model and in particular that implies a lognormal distribution of future zero-coupon bond prices. As an application, we focus on the Hull-White one-factor model, which is calibrated to a set of cap prices. We illustrate our procedure by hedging a Belgian government bond, and take into account the possibility of divergence between theoretical option prices and real option prices. This paper can be seen as an extension of the work of Ahn et al. (1999), who consider the same problem for an investment in a share.
(Tail) Value-at-Risk, bond hedging, affine term structure model
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