English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity Antonio Ciccone; Markus Brückner

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/154220
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity
Author
  • Antonio Ciccone
  • Markus Brückner
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic change. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We rely on rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. Our analysis yields that negative transitory shocks lead to significant democratic change. A transitory 10 percent drop in income is followed by an improvement in democracy scores of 9 percentage points, and by an increase in the probability of a transition to democracy of 13 percentage points.
  • RePEc:upf:upfgen:1114
  • According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change. We examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980-2004 period in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries. We find that a 25% drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points. A 5% fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by 7 percentage points. We also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy.
  • Democratization, transitory economic shocks
  • RePEc:upf:upfgen:1063
Language
  • English
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